Market conditions

On April 25, 2019, U.S. stocks finished mixed: the Dow slid as 3M tumbled after a disappointing quarter, lowered guidance, and announced job cuts, while the S&P 500 was little changed and the Nasdaq eked out a small gain as strong tech results lifted sentiment—most notably Microsoft, which briefly crossed a $1 trillion market value on robust cloud growth, and Facebook, which rallied despite booking a multibillion-dollar accrual tied to an FTC matter. Macro signals were broadly constructive: March durable goods orders surprised to the upside and core capital-goods orders firmed, while initial jobless claims ticked up from historic lows but remained very tight. Oil prices eased from recent highs set earlier in the week amid Iran-sanctions headlines, Treasury yields hovered around the mid‑2% range, and optimism ahead of the next day’s Q1 GDP release and ongoing U.S.–China trade talks underpinned risk appetite. After the closing bell, earnings from heavyweights like Amazon and Intel drew attention, with Intel’s outlook cut weighing on after-hours sentiment.

On April 24, 2019, U.S. stocks eased slightly a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and energy‑sector headlines: the Dow fell 59 points to 26,597 (−0.22%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.22% to 2,927, and the Nasdaq edged down 0.23% to 8,102 after setting an intraday high. Boeing’s first post‑737 MAX‑crash report withdrew 2019 guidance and paused buybacks, while Caterpillar beat estimates but flagged competitive and margin pressures tied to China, keeping the tone cautious. Crude oil stayed elevated after the U.S. ended waivers on Iranian oil sanctions earlier in the week, and Occidental’s unsolicited $57 billion ($76 per share) bid for Anadarko challenged Chevron’s prior agreement, jolting oil names. Macro sentiment remained supported by a still‑dovish Federal Reserve ahead of its April 30–May 1 meeting and by optimism over U.S.–China talks scheduled to resume in Beijing on April 30, even as April flash PMIs pointed to slower global growth.

On April 23, 2019, U.S. stocks rallied as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on the back of broadly positive earnings and a supportive policy backdrop: the Fed was signaling patience on rates, housing data surprised to the upside, and oil prices were elevated after Washington said it would end waivers for importers of Iranian crude. Blue‑chip beats from Coca‑Cola, United Technologies and Lockheed Martin helped sentiment, while the Census Bureau’s report showed March new‑home sales rising 4.5% to a 16‑month‑high annualized pace of 692,000, reinforcing the view of a steady expansion with muted inflation and a market that had regained its footing after late‑2018 volatility. (upi.com)

On April 18, 2019, the U.S. economy appeared firm as March retail sales surprised to the upside with a 1.6% month‑over‑month jump and initial jobless claims fell to a 50‑year low near 192,000, pointing to resilient consumer demand and a tight labor market. Stocks hovered near record highs with modest gains as investors digested a generally constructive early‑season batch of first‑quarter earnings and the high‑profile IPOs of Zoom Video and Pinterest, both of which surged on debut and signaled healthy risk appetite; Treasury yields edged higher alongside the strong data, while WTI crude traded in the mid‑$60s and the dollar was little changed. The redacted Mueller report was released the same day, dominating headlines but producing limited immediate market reaction; with markets set to close for Good Friday on April 19, trading volumes were lighter and moves relatively contained.

On April 10, 2019, U.S. stocks edged higher as investors digested a firmer March CPI and dovish Federal Reserve minutes, while European leaders agreed to delay Brexit: the Dow closed near 26,157 (+0.03%), the S&P 500 around 2,888 (+0.4%), and the Nasdaq near 7,964 (+0.7%), with the 10-year Treasury yield about 2.47%. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month (1.9% year over year) while core CPI gained 0.1%, reinforcing the Fed’s signal to stay patient and, per minutes released that afternoon, to likely keep rates unchanged through 2019. Sentiment was tempered by the IMF’s fresh downgrade of 2019 global growth to 3.3%, but supported late by the EU’s decision to extend the U.K.’s Brexit deadline to October 31, reducing immediate no-deal risk. (latimes.com)

On March 29, 2019, U.S. stocks finished higher as trade optimism and Lyft’s market debut helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 211 points to 25,928.68, the S&P 500 gain 0.7% to 2,834.40, and the Nasdaq climb 0.8% to 7,729.32—capping the S&P 500’s strongest quarter since 2009. Treasury yields ticked up on the day (the 10‑year around 2.42%) but were sharply lower for the month and quarter amid the Fed’s dovish shift. The macro backdrop was mixed: fourth‑quarter 2018 GDP was revised down to a 2.2% annual rate the day prior, while March consumer sentiment was revised up to 98.4; the Chicago PMI eased to 58.7; and shutdown‑delayed PCE data showed January inflation running near 1.4% year over year. U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing wrapped with plans for a follow‑up round in Washington, supporting risk appetite, while abroad the U.K. Parliament rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a third time, pressuring sterling and adding to global uncertainty. (247wallst.com)

On Tuesday, March 26, 2019, U.S. stocks rebounded as risk appetite returned after the prior week’s yield‑curve scare: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.6% to 25,657, the S&P 500 gained roughly 0.7% to 2,818, and the Nasdaq added about 0.7%. Treasury yields steadied with the 10‑year holding a bit above 2.40% even as investors continued to digest the first 3‑month/10‑year inversion since 2007 that hit on March 22. The macro data flow was mixed: the Conference Board’s March Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 124.1 from 131.4 in February, February housing starts fell 8.7% to a 1.162 million annual rate, and the Case‑Shiller index showed January home‑price gains slowing to 4.3% year over year. Sector leadership tilted toward energy and financials, while a trade judge’s recommendation to ban imports of some older iPhones after finding Apple infringed a Qualcomm patent weighed on Apple shares; Brent crude hovered near $68. The backdrop remained supported by the Fed’s March 20 pivot signaling no rate hikes in 2019. (thestreet.com)

On Friday, March 22, 2019, U.S. stocks fell sharply as recession fears mounted after the 3‑month Treasury yield rose above the 10‑year for the first time since 2007, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 1.77% at 25,502.32, the S&P 500 off 1.90% at 2,800.71, and the Nasdaq down 2.50% at 7,642.67. (sa.marketscreener.com) Weak flash PMI data added to the gloom: U.S. manufacturing slowed to 52.5 in March, its lowest since mid‑2017, while eurozone and German readings signaled contraction and Germany’s 10‑year bund yield slipped below zero, pushing investors into safe havens. (investing.com) The flight to quality drove the U.S. 10‑year yield toward the mid‑2.40s and spurred a defensive tilt in equities, with utilities holding up better as most sectors declined and financials lagged. (moneyandmarkets.com) Oil eased on growth worries, and Boeing slipped after Indonesia’s Garuda moved to cancel 49 737 MAX orders following recent crashes. (sa.marketscreener.com) After the closing bell, Attorney General William Barr confirmed receipt of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report, a late political development with uncertain near‑term market impact; separately, EU leaders formally approved a short Brexit extension, keeping headline risk elevated. (pbs.org) Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve signaled no rate hikes in 2019 and outlined a slower outlook, reinforcing the bid for bonds. (federalreserve.gov)

On March 20, 2019, U.S. markets digested a clearly dovish Federal Reserve: policymakers held the fed funds rate at 2.25%–2.50%, projected no additional hikes in 2019, and outlined plans to halt balance‑sheet runoff in September, citing slower growth and muted inflation. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar fell on the decision, while equities ended mixed: the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3%, the Dow fell roughly 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged slightly higher, with banks lagging. Sentiment was also shaped by FedEx’s profit warning tied to softer global trade, intensifying 737 MAX scrutiny as the FBI joined a certification probe, crude hovering near 2019 highs after a large U.S. inventory draw, and geopolitics—U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May formally sought a Brexit delay and President Trump said Chinese tariffs could remain in place for a substantial period even after any deal. (federalreserve.gov)

On March 18, 2019, U.S. stocks edged higher ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting widely expected to reaffirm a patient stance, with the S&P 500 closing at 2,832.94 (+0.37%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 25,914.10 (+0.25%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 7,714.48 (+0.34%). Treasury yields hovered near the lower end of their recent range around 2.6% as investors waited for the Fed’s guidance. Corporate news was dominated by FIS’s agreement to buy Worldpay in a cash‑and‑stock deal valued at about $34.8 billion, or roughly $43 billion including debt, underscoring fast consolidation in payments. At the same time, the Boeing 737 MAX crisis deepened as reports surfaced of a federal probe into the jet’s certification following the Ethiopian Airlines crash, which weighed on sentiment around Boeing and the Dow. In commodities, oil prices moved near four‑month highs on expectations that OPEC+ would extend output cuts and on signs of U.S. inventory draws, offering support to energy shares. (statmuse.com)

On March 14, 2019, U.S. stocks ended mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.03% to 25,709.94 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.09% to 2,808.48 and the Nasdaq fell 0.16% to 7,630.91; crude oil hovered near a four‑month high around $58.6 and the VIX was near 13.5, signaling relatively calm sentiment. (schaeffersresearch.com) Economic data signaled slower growth with muted inflation: initial jobless claims rose to 229,000 for the week ended March 9, January new home sales declined 6.9% to a 607,000 annual pace, and import prices increased 0.6% month over month in February but were down 1.3% year over year. (investing.com) Those readings aligned with a Federal Reserve that had shifted to a patient stance ahead of its March 19–20 meeting. (axios.com) Market tone was shaped by the prior day’s FAA grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in the U.S., continuing global scrutiny of the jet; reports suggested a Trump–Xi summit to finalize a trade deal would be delayed until at least April; and the U.K. Parliament voted to seek an extension of Article 50 on Brexit, all contributing to a cautious backdrop. (axios.com)

On March 13, 2019, U.S. stocks advanced for a third straight session as health care and technology led gains, with the Dow up 148 points to 25,702.89, the S&P 500 up 19 to 2,810.92, and the Nasdaq up 52 to 7,643.41; Boeing shares even finished slightly higher after the U.S. joined other nations in grounding the 737 MAX following the Ethiopian Airlines crash, while risk sentiment also took a cue from the U.K. Parliament’s vote to rule out a no‑deal Brexit. (investing.com) Inflation readings stayed tame as February producer prices rose just 0.1% month‑over‑month and 1.9% year‑over‑year (a day after soft CPI), and energy stocks caught a bid as oil rose roughly 2% following an unexpected 3.9‑million‑barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories; President Trump also said he was in no rush to complete a trade deal with China, keeping trade uncertainty on the radar. (toronto.citynews.ca)

On March 12, 2019, U.S. stocks finished mixed as subdued inflation and a still‑dovish Federal Reserve backdrop supported wider gains while Boeing’s 737 Max crisis dragged the Dow: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 94 points to 25,556, while the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.3% to 2,791 and the Nasdaq added about 0.4% to 7,591. The Labor Department’s February CPI report that morning showed headline prices up 0.2% month over month and 1.5% year over year, with core CPI up 0.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures were muted. As many countries grounded the 737 Max after the Ethiopian Airlines crash, the FAA said there was “no basis” to ground the plane that day, and Boeing shares fell again, weighing on the Dow. Late in the U.S. session, Britain’s Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal, adding to global uncertainty as trading wound down. (brecorder.com) (bls.gov) (kpbs.org) (pbs.org)

On Friday, March 8, 2019, the U.S. economy sent mixed signals: the February jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 20,000, even as the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and average hourly earnings accelerated 3.4% year over year, the strongest pace of the expansion to that point. Major indexes finished slightly lower after paring deeper intraday losses—the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.09% to 25,450.24, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 2,743.07, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.2% to 7,408.14—capping the S&P 500’s worst week since January. Global growth worries intensified after China reported a 20.7% year-over-year plunge in February exports and the European Central Bank cut its 2019 growth forecast while rolling out new bank loans, developments that nudged Treasury yields lower around the 2.6% area and reinforced a risk-off tone. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated first‑quarter 2019 real GDP growth at 0.5%, underscoring a softer near-term outlook despite still-firm labor-market underpinnings. (bls.gov)

On March 7, 2019, U.S. stocks fell for a fourth straight session as the European Central Bank cut its growth outlook and unveiled a new round of bank loans (TLTRO‑III), deepening global‑growth concerns; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 25,473.23 (‑0.8%), the S&P 500 at 2,748.93 (‑0.8%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 7,421.46 (‑1.1%). Weekly initial jobless claims dipped to 223,000, pointing to a still‑solid labor market, but the supportive data was overshadowed by the ECB’s dovish shift, lingering U.S.–China trade uncertainty, and company‑specific disappointments; energy prices were firmer, with crude supported by OPEC cuts and gasoline futures jumping after a larger‑than‑expected draw in U.S. inventories. (tradingeconomics.com)

On March 5, 2019, U.S. stocks ended slightly lower as investors weighed U.S.–China trade negotiations and global growth signals: the Dow closed at 25,806.63 (−0.1%), the S&P 500 at 2,789.65 (−0.1%), and the Nasdaq at 7,576.36, with retail standouts Target and Kohl’s rallying on upbeat results while GE slipped on cash‑flow concerns. (businesstimes.com.sg) Domestically, services activity looked firm as ISM’s Non‑Manufacturing Index jumped to 59.7 for February, while housing showed stabilization with December new‑home sales rising 3.7% to a 621,000 annual rate. (prnewswire.com) Globally, sentiment was tempered by China cutting its 2019 GDP growth target to 6.0%–6.5% even as Beijing unveiled sizable tax cuts and infrastructure support, alongside a firmer U.S. dollar. (euronews.com) Overall, the day’s data and headlines suggested a resilient U.S. consumer and services sector, set against ongoing caution about trade and slower global growth. (cnbc.com)

On March 1, 2019, U.S. stocks advanced as trade optimism offset mixed data: the S&P 500 closed at 2,803.69, its first finish above 2,800 since November, while the Dow ended at 26,026.32 and the Nasdaq at 7,595.35. Investors drew support from the administration’s delay of a scheduled March 1 tariff hike and the president’s same-day call for China to lift tariffs on U.S. farm goods, even as the February ISM manufacturing index eased to 54.2 (the slowest pace since late 2016) and government data showed December consumer spending fell and January personal income dipped 0.1%, with core inflation still subdued. Signs of stabilization in China’s economy also helped sentiment, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI improving to 49.9, and the Federal Reserve’s patient stance remained a tailwind for risk assets. (voanews.com) (axios.com) (haver.com) (bea.gov) (caixinglobal.com)

On February 28, 2019, U.S. stocks slipped after a mix of data and geopolitics: the BEA’s long‑delayed first read on Q4 2018 showed real GDP growing at a 2.6% annualized pace, with consumer spending up 2.8% and business investment rebounding while housing remained a drag; weekly jobless claims rose to 225,000 with continuing claims at a 10‑month high, hinting at some cooling. Risk sentiment was dented when the U.S.–North Korea summit in Hanoi ended without a deal, partly offsetting optimism from the administration’s earlier decision to delay a March 1 tariff hike on Chinese goods. By the close, the Dow fell 0.27% to 25,916, the S&P 500 eased about 0.28% to 2,784, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.29% to 7,532; even so, the market logged another monthly gain, with the S&P 500 up roughly 3% in February. (bea.gov)

On February 27, 2019, U.S. stocks finished mixed as trade, politics, and data kept risk appetite in check: the Dow fell about 0.28% to 25,985, the S&P 500 edged down roughly 0.05% near 2,792–2,794, while the Nasdaq inched up around 0.07%. Markets weighed cautious congressional testimony from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer—who stressed that any U.S.–China deal would require strict enforcement and that a tariff threat might persist—against a Fed still signaling patience in Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of semiannual testimony to the House. Sentiment was underpinned by a rebound in consumer confidence to 131.4 in February, but the picture was muddied by a sharp widening in the December advance goods trade deficit and by geopolitical headlines (including Michael Cohen’s high‑profile House testimony) that added to headline risk. Energy prices firmed after a surprise 8.6 million‑barrel U.S. crude draw lifted oil roughly 2.6%, while equities overall stalled just below the closely watched 2,800 level on the S&P 500 as investors awaited clearer signals on trade and growth. (thestreet.com)

On Tuesday, February 26, 2019, U.S. equities slipped after a choppy session as investors balanced a cautious Federal Reserve tone and mixed data: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13% to about 26,057, the S&P 500 eased 0.08% to 2,793, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.07% to 7,549. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in semiannual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, reaffirmed a “patient” stance on further rate hikes while acknowledging crosscurrents from global growth and policy uncertainty. The data ledger showed a sharp rebound in consumer confidence, with The Conference Board’s index jumping to 131.4 in February, contrasting with a delayed Commerce Department report revealing December housing starts fell 11.2% month over month to a 1.078 million annual rate. Corporate headlines also weighed, notably Home Depot’s earnings miss and softer 2019 outlook that pressured the Dow. The broader backdrop included optimism from the prior weekend’s U.S.–China tariff hike delay, but markets awaited concrete details. (economia.uol.com.br)

On February 25, 2019, U.S. stocks finished modestly higher as optimism over U.S.–China trade talks rose after the White House said it would delay the March 1 tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese goods; the Dow closed near 26,091.95 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also eked out gains, though intraday strength faded into the close. Sentiment was helped by deal activity as General Electric jumped on news it would sell its biopharma unit to Danaher for $21.4 billion. After the bell, the SEC moved to hold Tesla CEO Elon Musk in contempt over a production tweet, pressuring Tesla shares. Oil prices eased as President Trump publicly urged OPEC to keep crude from rising, while macro signals were mixed as the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for January fell to -0.43, indicating below-trend growth. (investing.com)

On Friday, February 22, 2019, U.S. stocks advanced as trade optimism overshadowed mixed economic data: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 26,031.81, the S&P 500 at 2,792.67, and the Nasdaq at 7,527.55, with sentiment buoyed by U.S.–China negotiations in Washington that were extended into the weekend and described by the president as having a good chance of success; reports also pointed to progress on a currency accord. Earlier in the week, Federal Reserve minutes reinforced a patient policy stance and indicated plans to end balance-sheet runoff later in 2019, supporting risk assets. Offsetting this were signs of slower momentum, including a drop in core capital-goods orders, a sharp fall in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge to -4.1, softer flash PMI readings, and January existing-home sales at their lowest since November 2015. Oil prices hovered near three-month highs on OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, while a notable corporate shock saw Kraft Heinz plunge after a $15.4 billion brand write-down, a dividend cut, and disclosure of an SEC subpoena—even as the major indexes finished higher. (voanews.com)

On Thursday, February 21, 2019, U.S. stocks slipped after a three-day run, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 25,850.63 (-0.4%), the S&P 500 at 2,774.88 (-0.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 7,459.71 (-0.4%). (seattletimes.com) Sentiment was pressured by softer data: the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index dropped to -4.1 in February, January existing-home sales slowed to a 4.94 million annual rate (the weakest since November 2015), and core capital-goods orders (a proxy for business investment) fell 0.7% in December. (haver.com) A counterweight came from labor, as weekly jobless claims fell to 216,000, signaling ongoing labor-market resilience. (business-standard.com) Markets also parsed U.S.–China trade talks resuming in Washington and the prior day’s Fed minutes, which emphasized a “patient” stance on rates and pointed to ending balance-sheet runoff later in 2019. (pbs.org) After the closing bell, Kraft Heinz shocked investors with a $15.4 billion writedown, disclosure of an SEC probe, and a dividend cut—news poised to weigh on Friday’s tone. (forbes.com)

On February 20, 2019, U.S. stocks finished slightly higher as investors digested Federal Reserve minutes that reaffirmed a patient approach to rate hikes and suggested the central bank would outline plans to halt balance-sheet runoff later in 2019; the Dow rose about 63 points to roughly 25,954, the S&P 500 edged up to about 2,784, and the Nasdaq was near flat, while oil hovered around new year-to-date highs, reflecting tighter OPEC supply amid still-robust U.S. output. The day’s broader backdrop featured a still-solid but moderating economy with January unemployment at 4.0% and year-over-year CPI inflation near 1.6%, alongside lingering growth headwinds from the just-ended government shutdown, which the CBO estimated shaved roughly $11 billion from GDP, some of it permanent. Market sentiment also hinged on policy headlines: U.S.–China trade negotiations resumed in Washington that week, and President Trump renewed threats of tariffs on European auto imports—both key sources of uncertainty that kept gains contained—while quarterly earnings added stock-specific moves, including a sharp drop in CVS after weak 2019 guidance. (ksl.com)

On Tuesday, February 19, 2019, U.S. stocks eked out modest gains as investors balanced upbeat corporate news with policy uncertainty: the Dow added about 8 points to 25,891, the S&P 500 rose roughly 4 points to 2,779.76, and the Nasdaq gained about 14 points to 7,486.77, helped by strength in Walmart and ongoing optimism around U.S.–China trade talks in Washington. (business-standard.com) Walmart’s holiday‑quarter report, including U.S. same‑store sales up 4.2% and adjusted EPS of $1.41, buoyed retail sentiment and helped steady the tape after a soft open. (washingtonpost.com) Trade headlines remained the market’s chief macro catalyst, with China’s Vice Premier Liu He set to visit Washington later in the week and the White House touting “progress,” sustaining risk appetite. (axios.com) Under the surface, recent data signaled a softer industrial backdrop—January industrial production fell 0.6% and manufacturing dropped 0.9%—even as February homebuilder confidence improved, leaving a mixed but still‑expanding picture ahead of the next day’s Federal Reserve minutes. (federalreserve.gov) Oil hovered near three‑month highs around the mid‑$50s for WTI on OPEC‑led cuts and sanctions, offering a mild tailwind to energy. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)

On February 15, 2019, U.S. stocks rallied sharply as optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations outweighed softer data and political noise: the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 443.86 points to 25,883.25, the S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 2,775.60, and the Nasdaq gained 0.6% to 7,472.41. Sentiment improved after Beijing talks wrapped and both sides said negotiations would continue in Washington the following week, while a new spending bill averted another shutdown even as the president declared a national emergency to secure border-wall funding. Macro signals were mixed: January industrial production fell 0.6% (notably weak autos output), but preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment rebounded to 95.5 following the late-January end of the shutdown; Treasury yields ticked up (10-year near 2.67%) and crude oil advanced (WTI around $55.6), reinforcing a risk-on tone despite the prior day’s surprisingly weak December retail sales report.

On Thursday, February 14, 2019, U.S. stocks finished mixed after a delayed Commerce Department report showed December retail sales fell 1.2% month over month, the steepest drop since 2009, stoking concerns about year‑end demand and growth; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.41% to roughly 25,439, the S&P 500 slipped 0.27% to around 2,746, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.09%. Treasury markets rallied on the weak data, with the 10‑year yield falling to about 2.65% from 2.70%. Other releases reinforced a softer tone: initial jobless claims rose to 239,000 for the week ended February 9, and producer prices declined 0.1% in January, leaving final‑demand PPI up 2.0% year over year. Offsetting some of the gloom, investors continued to watch U.S.–China trade talks amid reports the March 1 tariff deadline might be extended, and in Washington Congress passed a spending bill to avert another shutdown while the White House signaled a national emergency declaration the next day, reducing immediate fiscal‑policy risk but adding political uncertainty. (www2.census.gov)

On February 13, 2019, U.S. stocks finished modestly higher as subdued inflation and optimism around U.S.–China trade talks lifted sentiment: January CPI was unchanged on the month and up 1.6% year over year, bolstering the case for a patient Federal Reserve; the S&P 500 closed near 2,753 (about +0.3%), the Dow rose roughly 118 points, and the Nasdaq added about 6 points. (bls.gov) Markets also tracked progress in Washington toward a border-security funding compromise to avoid another partial government shutdown ahead of the February 15 deadline, tempering headline risk. (cbsnews.com) Treasury yields ticked higher and the curve flattened after core CPI rose 0.2% m/m, while company news added support, with Hilton rallying on upbeat results during the session and Cisco beating estimates after the close. (brecorder.com)