Alpha Factory

Market conditions

Group: Year Month
Year: 2026 2025 2024 2023

27 Feb 2026 Fri as of 09:17:20

On February 27, 2026 U.S. markets finished the week under pressure after a hotter‑than‑expected wholesale inflation report—January PPI rose 0.5% month‑over‑month (2.9% year‑over‑year) and core PPI accelerated—re‑anchoring concerns that rate cuts will be delayed and boosting bond yields; at the same time oil prices jumped on renewed U.S.–Iran geopolitical fears and AI‑related volatility (including heavy selling around Nvidia) added to risk‑off sentiment, leaving the S&P 500 down roughly 0.4% to about 6,878.88, the Nasdaq off near 0.9% (~22,668), and the Dow down about 1.0% (around 48,978) as traders reassessed growth, inflation and policy expectations. (bls.gov)

The day’s mix of hotter wholesale inflation, rising oil and Middle East risk, and renewed AI‑sector volatility most directly affected energy and materials (higher oil and commodity prices supported producers and commodity names), airlines, trucking and logistics (fuel cost/headwind to margins), and industrials and manufacturers (cost passthroughs and supply‑chain/tariff risks). Retailers and wholesalers face margin pressure after the PPI showed a jump in trade‑service margins that can be passed to consumers, technology and semiconductor firms remain sensitive to swings in AI valuation and earnings visibility, and financials are watching Fed‑policy repricing closely because delayed rate cuts and higher yields change net interest margin and portfolio dynamics. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: true Market gap down preopen: true Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 30 Macro uncertainty score: 75 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 39.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 68.4

A hotter‑than‑expected January PPI print and a same‑day announcement of an additional China tariff (effective March 4) knocked futures lower and sent investors into safe havens ahead of the open.

26 Feb 2026 Thu as of 09:15:51

On February 26, 2026 U.S. markets were cautious and mixed: the Dow finished roughly flat near 49,499 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were weaker (the Nasdaq fell about 1–2% and the S&P about 0.5%), driven largely by a sharp post‑earnings selloff in Nvidia that undercut technology and semiconductor sentiment even after the company beat estimates; at the same time oil prices hovered near seven‑month highs on U.S.–Iran geopolitical worries and investors rotated into Treasuries, pushing the 10‑year yield down to about 4.0%, leaving market sentiment fragile as earnings‑season volatility and geopolitical risk weighed on broader risk appetite. (finance.yahoo.com)

Semiconductors and AI‑related technology names (chipmakers, data‑center hardware and related software/cloud providers) were most directly hit by the Nvidia‑led volatility; energy producers, refiners and oilfield services were sensitive to higher crude and volatility around U.S.–Iran talks; defense and aerospace firms, insurers and shipping/transportation companies faced elevated risk premiums from geopolitical uncertainty; consumer discretionary, travel and airlines were vulnerable to higher fuel costs and weaker consumer/risk sentiment; meanwhile financials and some commodity producers saw mixed effects as falling Treasury yields and rising energy prices pushed divergent forces across the economy. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 45 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 41.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 66.4

Premarket was muted/flat after mixed reactions to Nvidia and software earnings with futures little changed, a Fed Vice‑Chair testimony (Michelle Bowman) was scheduled later today, VIX/futures were below panic levels and coverage noted US–Iran talks but no overnight escalation. ([sahmcapital.com](https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/us-stocks-wall-st-eyes-flat-open-as-nvidias-strong-results-draw-muted-reaction-2026-02-26?utm_source=openai))

25 Feb 2026 Wed as of 09:16:44

On February 25, 2026 U.S. equity markets moved higher in a tech-led rebound: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased earlier weekly losses as investors piled into chips and AI-related names ahead of and around Nvidia’s quarterly report, with the S&P 500 rising roughly 0.8% to close near 6,946 and the Nasdaq gaining about 1.1% as sentiment warmed after earlier volatility. Nvidia released another blockbuster quarter and issued a bullish near-term revenue outlook that underscored strong AI demand, and that company’s results and guidance were the dominant market catalyst for the day while traders also weighed mixed signals about the broader economic backdrop and recent swings in risk appetite. (uk.finance.yahoo.com)

The strongest effects on February 25, 2026 were concentrated in semiconductors, AI hardware and software, and data‑center/cloud service providers — firms that supply or deploy AI infrastructure saw immediate sensitivity to Nvidia’s results and outlook — while related enterprise software, chip-equipment makers and smaller AI-exposed tech stocks also experienced higher volatility. Broader implications extend to capital‑goods and industrial suppliers benefiting from Big Tech data‑center capex, and to interest‑rate‑sensitive areas (real estate investment trusts, utilities, and some consumer discretionary segments) to the extent market moves shift funding costs and risk premiums as sentiment swings. (investing.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 60 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 40.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 68.4

Mildly positive pre-market (S&P futures ~+0.1%) ahead of Nvidia after‑hours and following the State of the Union; no scheduled Fed policy event or tier‑1 US data this morning, VIX around the mid‑teens and tariff concerns remain a background risk. ([sahmcapital.com](https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/us-stock-market-today-sp-500-futures-edge-higher-on-strong-hiring-and-rate-hopes-2026-02-25?utm_source=openai))

24 Feb 2026 Tue as of 09:16:01

On February 24, 2026 U.S. equity markets largely rebounded from earlier volatility, with major indexes finishing higher as renewed AI optimism—boosted by product advances from AI labs and chip/AI deal announcements—helped offset lingering tariff-related worries and geopolitical jitters; consumer confidence surprised to the upside and Treasury yields were relatively steady, leaving investors focused on upcoming heavyweight earnings (notably Nvidia) and on how shifting trade-policy headlines could reintroduce risk. (apnews.com)

The mix of AI-driven enthusiasm and revived trade/geopolitical uncertainty pointed to clear winners and losers: large-cap technology, chipmakers, cloud and enterprise software firms tied to AI deployments and data‑center capital expenditures stood to benefit, while exporters, industrials, and manufacturers dependent on global supply chains were vulnerable to tariff moves; banks and regional lenders faced sensitivity to economic softening and yield shifts that could affect loan growth, and energy and defense-related companies remained exposed to Middle East and Russia‑Ukraine developments that can lift oil prices and reprice risk. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: true Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: true Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 30 Macro uncertainty score: 75 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 40.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 70.4

Pre-open risk‑off driven by a new Section‑122 global tariff taking effect today, lingering tariff/AI selloff pressure, and overnight Russia–Ukraine strikes with elevated VIX and mixed/soft futures ahead of scheduled Fed speeches. ([yahoo.com](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-working-increase-temporary-144344136.html?utm_source=openai))

23 Feb 2026 Mon as of 09:11:11

On February 23, 2026 U.S. markets slid: the Dow plunged roughly 821 points (about 1.7%) while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell around 1% as investors reacted to President Trump’s rapid move to ramp up new tariffs (coming on the heels of a Supreme Court decision that limited his earlier tariff authority) and a renewed “AI scare” that prompted selling across certain software and cybersecurity names; safe-haven assets such as gold rose and the dollar slipped, even as macro data and commentary pointed to a still-resilient economy with above-potential growth, cooling labor-market signals and easing inflation that have kept the Fed largely on hold, leaving markets highly sensitive to trade-policy and tech-driven shocks. (apnews.com)

The combination of tariff risk and the AI-driven sector rotation hit export- and import-exposed industries hardest—manufacturing, autos and industrial suppliers, parts of the semiconductor and hardware supply chain, and retailers reliant on cross-border sourcing—while traditional software and cybersecurity firms were sold amid fears of AI-driven disruption even as AI-infrastructure leaders showed mixed results; defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) and safe-haven plays (gold/mining) tended to hold up better, and multinational exporters, logistics/shipping firms and companies with thin import-dependent margins faced the greatest near-term uncertainty from the trade-policy headlines and market repricing. (sahmcapital.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: true Market gap down preopen: true Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 30 Macro uncertainty score: 72 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 42.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 68.4

Pre-open risk-off driven by tariff turmoil after President Trump announced a new 15% global tariff, sending S&P futures down ~0.5% with gold/yen rally and safe-haven flows, ahead of Fed Gov. Waller's scheduled speech this morning. ([sahmcapital.com](https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/global-markets-wall-street-futures-slide-and-gold-rallies-on-trump-tariff-tumult-2026-02-23))

20 Feb 2026 Fri as of 09:15:16

On February 20, 2026 U.S. macro data presented a mixed, somewhat worrying picture: the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate showed real GDP slowed to a 1.4% annualized pace in Q4 2025 while the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays release showed the PCE price index rose 0.4% in December and core PCE at roughly 3.0% year‑over‑year, leaving growth softer but inflation stickier; equities opened the session under pressure as investors digested the growth‑inflation mix and what it means for Fed policy, but markets reversed course after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down key parts of the administration’s emergency tariff program, producing a relief bounce in major indices even as Treasury yields ticked higher while participants weighed the ruling’s fiscal and refund implications. (bea.gov)

The day’s combo of slower GDP, persistent core inflation and a landmark tariff ruling shifted risks unevenly across the economy: import‑reliant retailers, consumer‑electronics and apparel firms, and freight/logistics companies stood to gain from tariff removal and lower input/tariff cost uncertainty; exporters and domestic manufacturers saw mixed effects (competitiveness gains abroad but continued demand sensitivity to slower growth); energy and defense contractors moved with heightened Middle East risk and oil‑price sensitivity; and financials, payment processors and advisers could be directly affected by the legal and cash‑flow fallout from potential large tariff refunds and related litigation — a material fiscal/legal exposure estimated at more than $175 billion in tariff collections at risk. (theedgemalaysia.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: true Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 40 Macro uncertainty score: 65 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 48.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 62.4

Pre-open attention on Friday's GDP/core PCE releases plus elevated U.S.–Iran tensions produced cautious, muted futures and slightly higher volatility ahead of the open.

19 Feb 2026 Thu as of 09:17:34

On February 19, 2026 U.S. markets were broadly rangebound but tilted slightly lower as investors digested a hawkish-leaning set of Federal Reserve minutes and rising geopolitical risk that pushed oil prices higher; the S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.3% (to about 6,862), the Dow fell a few hundred points and the Nasdaq eased as AI-sensitive names softened, while 10‑year Treasury yields hovered near the low‑4% area amid mixed economic signals (weekly jobless claims eased even as industrial production surprised to the upside). Overall sentiment that a potential U.S.–Iran escalation could lift energy costs and that Fed officials remained divided on the path for rates kept risk appetite muted and produced modest sector rotation during the session. (apnews.com)

The most directly affected industries were energy and oil services (benefiting from higher crude), airlines, travel and leisure and global logistics (vulnerable to geopolitics and severe winter-weather disruptions), semiconductor and AI‑infrastructure firms (continuing volatility as investors reassess AI winners and losers), financials and mortgage/real‑estate (sensitive to Fed minutes and higher yields), and consumer discretionary/retail and travel‑related platforms (where company‑specific news like weaker outlooks or AI‑related competitive fears weighed on stocks). Industrials received a mixed read—some companies and construction equipment makers saw upside from resilient industrial production and company-level beats while others faced soft demand—so sector-level outcomes were uneven. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 40 Macro uncertainty score: 70 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 48.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 61.4

Modestly risk-off pre-market: S&P futures were down only a few-tenths of a percent, VIX was trading above 20 and gold/other safe havens were firmer amid FOMC minutes and Middle East tension headlines. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-historical-data?utm_source=openai))

18 Feb 2026 Wed as of 09:14:48

On February 18, 2026 U.S. equity markets finished modestly higher — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose roughly 0.5–0.8% while the Dow gained about 0.3% — as an AI-driven rebound in chip and megacap tech names (notably Nvidia after a multiyear deal with Meta) offset other weakness and investors parsed the Fed’s January meeting minutes, which showed officials split on the path for policy and noted several members were open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated; Treasury yields nudged up (the 10‑year around the low 4% area), oil surged on renewed Middle East supply concerns and gold rallied as a safe-haven, leaving a risk-on tone tempered by caution about inflation and geopolitical risk. (hk.marketscreener.com)

The day’s mix of stronger AI/semiconductor news, slightly higher yields and rising energy prices implied winners and losers: chipmakers, data‑center and AI infrastructure suppliers, cloud providers and semiconductor-software vendors were among the likely beneficiaries, while software and cybersecurity firms facing AI disruption or disappointing guidance, long-duration growth names exposed to rising yields, and rate-sensitive real‑estate/REITs faced pressure; meanwhile higher crude and geopolitical tensions tended to boost energy, defense and commodities producers but hurt airlines, transportation and other fuel‑sensitive consumer sectors. (hk.marketscreener.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: true Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: true Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 60 Macro uncertainty score: 70 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 52.4 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 59.4

Premarket S&P/Nasdaq futures were up ~0.5% ahead of the scheduled FOMC minutes (Feb 18), while US‑Iran tensions (temporary Strait of Hormuz drills/closure) lifted oil and safe havens, keeping risk mixed.

17 Feb 2026 Tue as of 09:14:51

On February 17, 2026, U.S. markets traded with notable intraday swings but finished broadly flat to slightly higher: the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to roughly 6,843.22, the Dow added about 32 points to near 49,533, and the Nasdaq moved up about 0.1% as investors digested mixed corporate news, signals of moderating inflation and renewed concerns about big-tech growth and AI spending; trading was choppy as some stocks swung between being major weights and major drivers of the market. Markets that day were driven by company-specific headlines (deal activity around Paramount/Warner and profit or demand warnings such as from General Mills), investor scrutiny of AI-related spending and growth outlooks, and fresh macro datapoints including a modest 0.2% rise in the January consumer price index, all of which left traders cautious heading into earnings and policy dates. (apnews.com)

The price action and news on February 17, 2026 suggested particular sensitivity in several areas: large-cap technology companies and chipmakers (vulnerable to an AI spending and valuation reset), cloud and data-center service providers and their suppliers (linked to AI capex expectations), media and entertainment (affected by M&A moves), consumer staples and packaged-food firms (sensitive to customer confidence warnings), and smaller-cap and cyclical businesses (more exposed to shifts in growth sentiment); banks and other rate-sensitive financials were also watching inflation and jobs signals closely for clues about future Fed policy. These sectoral pressures reflected both the day’s corporate headlines and the broader market debate over how much AI investment, moderating inflation, and forthcoming economic data will alter growth and policy expectations. (247wallst.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 40 Macro uncertainty score: 65 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 48.8 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 57.4

Modestly risk‑off preopen as AI-driven tech weakness and US–Iran geopolitical uncertainty weigh, with bond yields falling and the VIX elevated ahead of scheduled Fed speakers.

16 Feb 2026 Mon as of 14:24:42

On February 16, 2026 U.S. equity markets were closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, but market participants were digesting a volatile week: risk sentiment had swung toward “risk‑off” after AI‑related selling pushed the VIX above 20 and prompted sharp intra‑market rotations, even as macro data showed a still‑resilient labor market (January nonfarm payrolls +130,000; unemployment ~4.3%) and cooling consumer prices (January CPI ~+2.4% year‑over‑year), a mix that left hopes for a soft landing but kept uncertainty about the Fed’s path. Political risk added to the backdrop: a partial lapse in Department of Homeland Security funding that began in mid‑February raised operational concerns (TSA, border and emergency services) and therefore an additional near‑term source of market and real‑economy uncertainty. (apnews.com)

The combination of AI‑led volatility and the macro/policy mix most directly pressures large tech and AI‑exposed names (chipmakers, cloud providers and software platforms) and related growth sectors, while boosting demand for traditional defensive and ‘old‑economy’ assets (utilities, materials, energy and other value cyclicals) as investors rotate; real‑estate and REITs remain sensitive to moves in yields and spread compression, and financials are exposed to any change in the interest‑rate outlook and credit conditions. Travel and transportation firms, airport services, and other companies tied to TSA and border operations are vulnerable to disruptions from the DHS funding lapse, while consumer discretionary and small‑cap firms could feel the pain if sentiment and hiring soften. (bordier.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 60 Macro uncertainty score: 42 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 51.8 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 56.4

U.S. cash markets were closed for Presidents Day and S&P futures were largely flat after Friday’s cooler-than-expected January CPI, leaving a neutral-to-mildly-positive pre-market tone with no Fed policy event or tier‑1 U.S. release scheduled for Feb 16. ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stock-market-holiday-schedule?utm_source=openai))

13 Feb 2026 Fri as of 09:13:35

On February 13, 2026 U.S. markets were volatile and investor sentiment was fragile: a sharp, tech-led selloff earlier in the week left indexes trying to stabilize—benchmarks finished the day mixed-to-lower with the S&P 500 roughly in the mid-6,800s, the Dow near the 49,400–50,000 area, and the Nasdaq down more markedly as large-cap AI and software names weakened; the CBOE VIX spiked and trading volume was elevated as investors digested weak guidance from major tech suppliers and debated how AI could disrupt profit pools, while Treasury yields eased after inflation data showed cooling that calmed some rate-cut timing worries. (nasdaq.com)

The most directly affected industries that day were technology (software platforms, semiconductors, cloud and AI infrastructure) and communication services, which led declines amid AI “downside” concerns and weaker vendor guidance; financials and wealth-management firms were pressured by both tech-related disruption fears and rate uncertainty; transportation, logistics and certain commercial real-estate names that depend on economic activity and corporate spending also showed sensitivity to the selloff (some stocks in those areas posted sharp drops), while defensive sectors—consumer staples and utilities—outperformed as investors sought safety. Energy and commodity-linked businesses were sensitive to geopolitical and supply signals that kept oil prices elevated versus earlier weeks, influencing integrated oil companies, refiners and shipping; smaller-cap and cyclical firms faced greater downside risk if risk aversion persisted. (nasdaq.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 40 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 48.8 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 60.0

Cautious pre-open as U.S. futures trade modestly lower ahead of the January CPI at 8:30 AM ET, gold is firmer and the VIX is above 20, while no Fed policy decision is scheduled today. ([bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm?utm_source=openai))

12 Feb 2026 Thu as of 09:14:52

On February 12, 2026 U.S. equity markets sold off sharply — the S&P 500 fell about 1.6%, the Nasdaq roughly 2% and the Dow around 1.3% — as investors grappled with a mix of fresh labor and housing data, heightened AI-related risk aversion in tech names, and positioning ahead of key inflation data; the January payrolls report (near +130,000) and a drop in the unemployment rate to about 4.3% reinforced a “good-news-is-bad-news” dynamic that pushed traders to re-price the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while Treasury yields moved and safe-haven flows supported gains in gold and bonds (10‑year Treasury trading near ~4.1% intraday). (abcnews.com)

The day’s mix of macro signals and sector-specific headlines hit high-valuation and AI-exposed technology companies hardest (software, cloud platforms, semiconductors and AI infrastructure), prompted profit-taking in growth names, and increased volatility in crypto-related equities; housing-related industries — homebuilders, mortgage lenders, residential REITs, brokers and title services — were pressured after existing-home sales plunged (about an 8.4% drop in January), while financials showed a mixed reaction (some banks could benefit from yield dynamics even as mortgage originations slow). Energy and commodity-linked firms can be sensitive to concurrent oil/inventory headlines, and defensive trades (utilities, consumer staples, gold) saw relative demand in the risk-off move. (abcnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 62 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 51.8 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 62.0

Modest risk-on tone: U.S. futures were slightly higher after a jobs surprise and ahead of key inflation prints later in the week, with VIX around the mid-teens. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-stocks-futures-edge-higher-as-data-eases-economic-worries-4502073?utm_source=openai))

11 Feb 2026 Wed as of 09:17:42

On February 11, 2026 the U.S. economy showed a mix of resilience and lingering softness: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a stronger-than-expected January payroll gain of about 130,000 and an unemployment rate near 4.3%, while also publishing large annual benchmark downward revisions to 2025 payrolls, and markets reacted with a “good news–bad news” tone as investors priced a lower probability of near‑term Fed cuts; major indexes finished the day mixed (the S&P about flat, the Nasdaq softer, and the Dow modestly higher and trading around record territory), Treasury yields moved noticeably as traders repriced rate‑cut odds, and individual names such as Robinhood plunged on company‑specific earnings news amid the broader rotation into energy, materials and cyclical names. (bls.gov)

Sectors likely most affected by the economic backdrop and that day’s headlines include interest‑rate‑sensitive areas such as housing, mortgage lenders and homebuilders (higher yields and reduced near‑term rate‑cut odds put pressure on refinancing and discretionary housing demand), growth and large‑cap tech names (which underperformed as higher rates shrink discounted future earnings and investors rotated into value/cyclical names), financials (mixed: banks can benefit from wider net interest margins but face slower loan demand risk), consumer discretionary and retail (vulnerable to any slowdown in consumer spending and weak retail sales data), and energy, materials and industrials (which saw inflows on stronger activity indicators and higher oil prices and stood to gain from construction job gains reported in the payrolls release). (bls.gov)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 42 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 48.4 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 63.0

Stronger-than-expected January nonfarm payrolls (130k) released at 8:30 AM pushed yields and the dollar higher, dimming near-term rate-cut hopes and leaving futures mixed ahead of the open.

10 Feb 2026 Tue as of 09:14:31

On February 10, 2026 U.S. markets were mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a fresh record close around 50,188 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the session modestly lower as investors digested unexpectedly flat December retail sales and awaited upcoming jobs and inflation releases; Treasury yields softened (the 10-year around the low-4% area), which buoyed hopes for Fed rate cuts later in the year and helped keep equities near recent highs despite signs of consumer weakness and mixed corporate earnings. (en.wikipedia.org)

The most directly affected businesses on Feb. 10, 2026 were consumer-facing firms—especially department stores, electronics and appliance retailers, auto dealers and other discretionary sellers that showed weakness in the December retail report—while big-box grocers and building-materials retailers fared relatively better; financials and asset managers are watching bond-market moves and rate-path expectations closely (which influence net interest margins and asset flows), and rate-sensitive sectors such as housing-related stocks, REITs and utilities could react to changing yield and Fed-cut expectations; technology and growth names remained volatile around earnings and capex narratives, so companies tied to AI spending or whose profits depend on strong consumer demand were particularly exposed. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 55 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 47.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 65.0

Premarket tone muted—U.S. futures hovered near flat just before the open while markets awaited December retail sales (scheduled 8:30 AM ET) and a heavy earnings slate. ([billcara.com](https://www.billcara.com/p/the-cara-playbook-tuesday-feb-10?utm_source=openai))

09 Feb 2026 Mon as of 09:09:13

On February 9, 2026 U.S. equity markets traded modestly higher overall: the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.5% to about 6,964.8, the Nasdaq gained near 0.9% to roughly 23,238.7, while the Dow was essentially flat around 50,136 as investors consolidated gains from earlier rallies and digested news flow. (newser.com) Treasury yields were largely steady as traders awaited an active data week (including jobs and upcoming CPI) that could alter expectations for the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026, and that wait-and-see tone helped limit broad market directional conviction. (abcnews.go.com) Commodity and crypto moves played a role in sentiment: gold and silver caught bids and bitcoin stabilized after recent swings, creating cross-asset flows that influenced risk appetite. (apnews.com) Technology and AI-related names led much of the upside as investors rotated back into chip and software stocks after a volatile spell, though software valuations remained under scrutiny and analyst headlines drove outsized single-stock moves during the session. (ts2.tech)

The market backdrop and February 9 headlines most directly affected AI/technology (semiconductors, cloud providers, software firms) because investor positioning and earnings-season commentary continued to hinge on AI capex and margin implications; these groups showed the biggest intra-day swings. (ts2.tech) Financials and asset managers felt the flow effects of equity reallocation and fixed-income stability, with private-equity and large managers reacting to deal and fee narratives. (ts2.tech) Energy and commodities were sensitive to geopolitical and supply concerns that supported oil and metals prices, which in turn can pressure inflation expectations and cyclical earnings. (ts2.tech) Retail and consumer names (including supermarket and grocery chains) responded to firm-specific news such as executive moves that day and to the broader consumer-data and jobs story that underpins spending. (yournews.com) Finally, crypto-related firms and precious-metals producers were directly affected by the swings and stabilization in bitcoin, gold and silver, while telecom and dividend-oriented utilities were sensitive to yield movements and any repricing of rate-cut odds. (ts2.tech)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 45 Macro uncertainty score: 60 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 44.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 67.0

U.S. futures were muted/mixed (slightly lower) ahead of key U.S. jobs and inflation releases later in the week while gold reclaimed the $5,000 area, leaving a cautious pre-market tone. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-futures-muted-as-markets-await-key-economic-data-4492985?utm_source=openai))

06 Feb 2026 Fri as of 09:10:50

On February 6, 2026 U.S. equity markets staged a sharp rebound: the S&P 500 rose about 2% to roughly 6,932.30, the Dow jumped roughly 1,206.95 points to close above 50,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq gained around 2.2%, with chip stocks and other AI‑sensitive names leading the rally while bitcoin recovered above $70,000; that risk‑on move occurred with the Federal Reserve having kept its policy range steady at about 3.50%–3.75% after its late‑January meeting, even as market uncertainty was elevated because the Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the January employment release amid a partial funding lapse and the Treasury’s Feb. 4 quarterly refunding signaled continued buybacks to help Treasury market functioning. (apnews.com)

Sectors most directly affected by that mix of strong risk appetite and macro uncertainty included semiconductor and chip‑equipment makers and large AI‑exposed technology firms (the day’s market leadership), cryptocurrency exchanges and miners (sensitive to bitcoin volatility and elevated leverage), cyclical small‑cap and consumer‑discretionary companies reliant on household spending (vulnerable given weak consumer expectations and a softening leading economic index), and banks/financial firms and fixed‑income intermediaries that watch the Fed’s data‑dependent rate path, Treasury buyback operations and funding/liquidity conditions; energy and defense‑related names also remained watch‑points should geopolitical risks re‑escalate. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: true Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 55 Macro uncertainty score: 70 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 41.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 68.0

Premarket was cautiously positive (S&P futures +~0.4–0.6%) despite a tech shock from Amazon after‑hours; volatility and bond moves were elevated, the January jobs report was delayed and a Fed vice‑chair speech was scheduled.

05 Feb 2026 Thu as of 09:15:48

On February 5, 2026 U.S. equity markets moved into a risk‑off mode: the S&P 500 slid about 1.2% to finish near 6,798.40, the Nasdaq fell roughly 1.6%, and the Dow dropped around 1.2% (losing several hundred points into the 48,900s), as investors digested a mix of disappointing labor‑market signals and an earnings-season shock from Big Tech. The immediate market narrative that day centered on Alphabet’s surprise guidance for a very large AI-related capital‑expenditure program (guidance in the $175–185 billion area) which raised questions about near‑term margins and prompted selling in some growth names, while fresh signs of softening in parts of the jobs picture and rising layoff announcements pushed Treasury yields lower (the 10‑year was trading down into the low‑4% area) and added to the risk‑off tone; the combined effect hit high‑multiple tech and crypto assets hardest and produced a broader one‑day pullback across indices. (apnews.com)

The day’s developments most directly affected technology and AI‑exposure chains—large cloud providers, hyperscalers, data‑center builders, chipmakers and semiconductor‑equipment suppliers (both beneficiaries of future capex and volatile in the near term as investors price the funding/return tradeoff); high‑valuation software and growth stocks were under pressure as investors re‑rated future cash flows; crypto and related fintech names saw renewed weakness amid the risk‑off move; bond‑sensitive sectors such as mortgage lenders, REITs and homebuilders were influenced by lower long‑term yields (which can help refinancing but also signal growth worries); and consumer discretionary, logistics and transport firms were vulnerable to weaker hiring and layoff headlines that day. (streetinsider.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: false Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 45 Macro uncertainty score: 65 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 36.0 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 67.0

Premarket was cautious/near-neutral with U.S. futures largely flat while the ECB and BoE held rates today and ISM Services was scheduled, keeping uncertainty elevated. ([ts2.tech](https://ts2.tech/en/us-economic-calendar-today-jobless-claims-jolts-hit-as-wall-street-futures-steady/?utm_source=openai))

04 Feb 2026 Wed as of 06:01:35

On February 4, 2026 U.S. markets were mixed: the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid roughly 1.4–1.5% and the S&P 500 fell in the mid‑single digits percentage-wise while the Dow finished flat to modestly positive as strong results from select blue‑chips (notably Amgen) offset a broad sell‑off in semiconductors and AI‑exposed names; the move followed disappointing near‑term guidance from Advanced Micro Devices and renewed investor de‑risking of the AI trade, and was compounded by a roughly 2–3% jump in oil on renewed U.S.–Iran tensions that added inflation and geopolitical risk to the market backdrop; at the same time the Federal Reserve finalized 2026 stress‑test scenarios and opted to keep large‑bank capital buffers steady, reinforcing a cautious tone and sector rotation that shaped trading that day. (nasdaq.com)

The February 4, 2026 market picture most directly pressured semiconductor makers, AI‑infrastructure suppliers, software and cloud firms and other high‑growth/AI‑sensitive technology stocks as investors pared back stretched valuations; healthcare and select defensive large caps (which produced pockets of outperformance like Amgen) drew relative buyer interest; rising oil and Middle East flare‑ups tended to benefit upstream energy producers, services and some commodity suppliers while increasing cost risks for energy‑intensive industries; defense and aerospace names can be sensitive to the geopolitical escalation, and banks and financial firms were attentive to Fed supervisory guidance and stress‑test outcomes for capital and lending dynamics — overall favoring companies with steadier earnings and less AI‑exposure amid the day’s volatility. (kelo.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: true Geopolitical escalation: true Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: true Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 35 Macro uncertainty score: 70 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 39.4 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 65.6

Overnight U.S.–Iran incidents (U.S. shot down an Iranian drone) pushed safe-haven flows and oil/gold higher and left U.S. futures notably weaker ahead of an RBA policy decision scheduled today. ([dawn.com](https://www.dawn.com/news/1970843/us-shoots-down-iranian-drone-approaching-aircraft-carrier-official-says?utm_source=openai))

03 Feb 2026 Tue as of 00:20:13

On February 3, 2026 the U.S. stock market moved lower in mixed trading as investors rotated out of richly valued tech and software names: the S&P 500 fell about 0.8%, the Dow dipped roughly 166 points and the Nasdaq slid about 1.4%, with notable weakness in big-cap tech (including declines for Nvidia and Microsoft) and outsized losses in some software names as AI-competition and margin concerns weighed; precious metals surged that day (gold and silver posted strong gains) and the 10‑year Treasury yield eased modestly, while market caution was amplified by delayed labor-market releases and a thin, uncertain economic calendar. (apnews.com)

The day’s moves suggested particular stress for large-cap technology, software-as-a-service companies and semiconductors (sensitive to AI hype, earnings and valuation re-rating), while miners and precious‑metals producers benefited from safe‑haven flows; consumer staples and select defensive names that reported resilient results (for example some packaged‑foods and health‑care services firms) showed relative strength, and interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities could be affected by shifts in Treasury yields and the delayed economic data—overall, firms exposed to AI disruption, enterprise software revenue risk, and commodity/mining producers were the most directly impacted by the news and market sentiment on February 3, 2026. (apnews.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: false Tariff or trade policy: true Market gap down preopen: false Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: true Market sentiment score: 40 Macro uncertainty score: 70 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 44.8 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 63.6

Mixed pre-market: futures modestly higher while safe‑haven assets (gold) and the VIX were rallying and US labor releases were delayed amid a partial government shutdown — plus a US‑India trade‑deal/tariff announcement overnight. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-nasdaq-futures-edge-up-as-earnings-deluge-takes-center-stage-4481237))

02 Feb 2026 Mon as of 00:30:37

On February 2, 2026 U.S. equity markets were generally firmer: the S&P 500 rose about 0.5 to finish near 6,976.44, the Dow climbed roughly 1.1% to about 49,407.66, and the Nasdaq gained about 0.6% as investors cheered an unexpectedly strong ISM manufacturing report that showed the sector back in expansion at a 52.6 reading for January; at the same time markets saw episodic volatility from technology- and AI-related headlines (notably reporting around Nvidia/OpenAI financing) while commodity markets (oil and precious metals) moved lower and Treasury yields ticked up modestly, and a partial federal government shutdown that began at the end of January prompted the Bureau of Labor Statistics to postpone the scheduled January jobs release, adding near-term data uncertainty that traders factored into positioning that day. (prnewswire.com)

The combination of a surprise manufacturing rebound and AI/tech headline risk pointed to a mixed sectoral impact on February 2: industrials, machinery, transportation and suppliers stood to benefit from a stronger ISM print, while semiconductor makers, data‑center and cloud infrastructure providers, and AI‑exposed software companies were sensitive to the Nvidia/OpenAI funding headlines and showed heightened intra‑day swings; energy producers and oil services were pressured by lower crude prices, and precious‑metals miners and related commodity plays were hit by the selloff in gold and silver; financials and regional banks remained watch‑listed given the yield moves and lingering concerns about small‑bank stress, and government contractors, some health‑care providers and telehealth services faced direct operational or reimbursement uncertainty from the partial government shutdown and delayed economic releases. (prnewswire.com)

ML Features

Macro risk off: true Fed or rate event: false Geopolitical escalation: false Major econ data release: true Tariff or trade policy: false Market gap down preopen: true Market gap up preopen: false Vix elevated: false Market sentiment score: 30 Macro uncertainty score: 65 Market sentiment score (5 day avg): 47.8 Macro uncertainty score (5 day avg): 62.6

Pre-market S&P/Nasdaq futures were notably lower (~0.6–1%) amid President Trump’s Kevin Warsh Fed nomination and a sharp precious‑metals rout, with ISM manufacturing due at 10:00 AM ET. ([barchart.com](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37354687/stocks-set-to-open-lower-as-risk-sentiment-weakens-u-s-jobs-data-and-earnings-in-focus?utm_source=openai))