Market conditions

On March 31, 2023, U.S. stocks rallied into quarter‑end as inflation data showed further cooling and banking‑sector anxieties eased: the S&P 500 rose 1.44% to 4,109.31, the Nasdaq gained 1.74% to 12,221.91, and the Dow added 1.26% to 33,274.15; for the first quarter, the S&P was up about 7% year to date while the tech‑heavy Nasdaq logged roughly a 16.8% gain, with the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield ending the week near 3.56%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed February PCE prices up 0.3% month over month and 5.0% year over year (core 4.6%), while real consumer spending dipped 0.1%, reinforcing hopes that price pressures were easing without a sharp demand collapse. The tone was also set against a busy news backdrop: a severe tornado outbreak unfolding across parts of the Midwest and South, and the prior evening’s historic indictment of former President Donald Trump, both of which added headline risk but little immediate impact to broad index levels that day. (cnbc.com)

On March 30, 2023, U.S. stocks edged higher as banking‑stress jitters continued to ease: the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4,050.83, the Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 0.7% to 12,013.47, and the Dow added around 0.4% to 32,859. Fresh data showed initial jobless claims ticked up to 198,000 for the week ended March 25 while the government’s third estimate put fourth‑quarter 2022 real GDP growth at a 2.6% annualized pace; Treasury yields were little changed to slightly lower, with the 10‑year near 3.55%. Fed weekly figures indicated banks were still leaning on official backstops, with roughly $105 billion in primary‑credit (discount‑window) loans and about $64 billion outstanding via the Bank Term Funding Program as of March 29, while sentiment also benefited from the March 27 announcement that First Citizens would acquire much of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets and deposits. (armenpress.am)

On March 29, 2023, U.S. stocks rallied as banking jitters continued to fade and upbeat corporate news improved risk appetite: the S&P 500 rose about 1.4% to 4,027.81, the Nasdaq gained roughly 1.8% to 11,926, and the Dow advanced near 1.0% to around 32,718. Strength in semiconductors led the move after Micron signaled inventory progress and improving demand later in the year, while a strong earnings beat and guidance from Lululemon boosted retail sentiment. Market breadth was robust with the vast majority of S&P 500 constituents higher, volatility gauges eased, and Treasury yields edged up (10‑year near 3.6%, 2‑year a little above 4.0%). On the policy front, a House Financial Services hearing on regulators’ response to the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures kept attention on the banking system even as regional bank shares stabilized. Economic data showed pending home sales up 0.8% in February, a third straight monthly gain that hinted at tentative housing stabilization despite still-elevated mortgage rates.

On Tuesday, March 28, 2023, U.S. stocks eased as investors digested fresh housing and confidence data alongside bank‑oversight headlines: the S&P 500 slipped 0.16% to 3,971.27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.12% to 32,394.25, and the Nasdaq Composite ended at 11,716.08, while the 10‑year Treasury yield hovered near 3.55%, pressuring rate‑sensitive tech shares. (statmuse.com) Consumer confidence ticked up to 104.2 in March, and home‑price growth cooled sharply, with S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller showing a 3.8% year‑over‑year rise for January and a seventh straight monthly decline—evidence of a still‑cooling housing market. (prnewswire.com) On Capitol Hill, the Senate Banking Committee questioned the Fed, FDIC, and Treasury about the SVB and Signature failures, reinforcing expectations for tighter oversight of mid‑sized banks; meanwhile, news flow included Alibaba’s plan to split into six business units and lingering ripple effects from the CFTC’s lawsuit against Binance a day earlier. (banking.senate.gov)

On March 27, 2023, U.S. markets reflected cautious stabilization after weeks of banking turmoil: First Citizens BancShares agreed to acquire most of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans, easing contagion fears and helping regional bank shares rebound; by the close, the S&P 500 edged up 0.16% to 3,977.53, the Dow rose to 32,432.08 (+0.60%), while the Nasdaq slipped to 11,768.84 (−0.47%) as tech underperformed; at the same time, the CFTC’s lawsuit against Binance pressured crypto-linked equities, and Treasury yields firmed as stress abated, with investors still digesting the Federal Reserve’s March 22 quarter‑point hike and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s warning that bank stress raises recession risk; the Dallas Fed’s March manufacturing survey remained in contraction, underscoring a still-fragile macro backdrop. (washingtonpost.com)

On Friday, March 24, 2023, U.S. stocks recovered from early losses tied to renewed European banking jitters and finished modestly higher: the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 3,970.99, the Dow gained 132 points to 32,237.53, and the Nasdaq added 0.3%, while Treasury yields fell to about 3.38% on the 10‑year and 3.77% on the 2‑year; it was the market’s second straight winning week. Deutsche Bank’s credit‑default swaps jumped and its shares slid roughly 8.5% in Frankfurt, unsettling risk appetite before a late‑day U.S. rebound. U.S. data were mixed: February durable‑goods orders fell 1.0% month‑over‑month (with orders ex‑transportation roughly flat), but S&P Global’s flash March PMI showed services strengthening (services 53.8; composite 53.3) while manufacturing stayed below 50 (49.3). In the backdrop, Fed emergency lending to banks remained elevated in the week through March 22 following the mid‑month failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature, and the Fed had just lifted rates by 25 bps on March 22 while warning tighter credit could weigh on growth; sentiment was also colored by UBS’s March 19 rescue of Credit Suisse. (latimes.com) (cnbc.com) (census.gov) (investing.com) (investing.com) (axios.com)

On March 23, 2023, U.S. stocks finished higher as worries about bank stability eased after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators were prepared to take additional actions to protect deposits; the Dow rose 0.23% to 32,105, the S&P 500 gained 0.30% to 3,948, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.01% to 11,787 as yields fell sharply (the 2‑year down about 18 bps). Weekly initial jobless claims registered 191,000 for the period ended March 18, pointing to a still‑tight labor market, while the Census/HUD report showed February new‑home sales at a 640,000 annual rate. Markets were also digesting the Federal Reserve’s March 22 decision to raise the funds rate by 25 bps to 4.75%–5.00%. Banking stress lingered (regional‑bank gauges declined), and notable stock‑specific shocks included a short‑seller report that knocked Block roughly 15% lower and a Wells notice that hit Coinbase shares. (moneycontrol.com)

On March 22, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.75%–5.00% and softened its guidance to say that “some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” while Chair Jerome Powell noted that recent banking stress would likely tighten credit and weigh on economic activity. (federalreserve.gov) Stocks reversed lower into the close after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told senators regulators were not considering blanket deposit insurance; the Dow fell 530 points (-1.63%) to 32,030.11, the S&P 500 dropped 1.65% to 3,936.97, and the Nasdaq slid 1.60% to 11,669.96. (cnbc.com) Regional-bank shares led declines (the KBW Regional Bank Index down about 5%+) as Treasury yields sank, with the 10‑year near 3.5% and the 2‑year around 4% by late day. (shorenewsnetwork.com) Macro conditions remained mixed: inflation was still elevated (February CPI 6.0% year over year) and the labor market tight (February unemployment 3.6%), underscoring the Fed’s balancing act between price pressures and financial‑stability risks. (cnbc.com)

On March 21, 2023, U.S. stocks rebounded for a second straight day as banking stress appeared to ease and investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s March 22 policy decision: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98% to 32,560.60, the S&P 500 gained 1.30% to 4,002.87, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.58% to 11,860.11. (investing.com) Confidence was helped by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks that the government could backstop additional bank deposits if needed to prevent contagion, while markets broadly expected a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed’s meeting. (cnbc.com) Fresh housing data also supported sentiment: existing-home sales for February jumped 14.5% month over month to a 4.58 million annual rate, breaking a 12‑month decline. (upi.com) Bond yields remained volatile but, per global market monitors, had fallen sharply over the prior two weeks even as they ticked higher on the day; overall backdrop stayed sensitive to banking headlines following UBS’s government-brokered purchase of Credit Suisse days earlier. (imfconnect.org) Oil prices, which had slumped on recession fears, continued a modest rebound as banking concerns ebbed. (cnbc.com)

On March 20, 2023, U.S. stocks ended higher as authorities’ weekend rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS and a coordinated move by major central banks to enhance dollar-liquidity calmed some banking-stress fears ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 22 policy decision; the S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 3,951.57, the Dow gained 1.2% to 32,244.58, and the Nasdaq added 0.4% to 11,675.54, even as First Republic plunged 47% on a fresh downgrade while New York Community Bancorp jumped after agreeing to buy parts of Signature Bank. Treasury market volatility persisted—after plunging the prior week, the 2‑year yield rebounded toward ~3.97% (from 3.84% Friday) but remained well below early‑March highs above 5%—as investors weighed tighter credit risks against still‑elevated inflation and a fed funds rate already at 4.50%–4.75%. Commodities reflected the growth scare: crude hovered in the upper‑$60s after Brent briefly slipped under $72 on banking turmoil, while gold neared and at times topped $2,000 on safe‑haven demand; markets priced a divided outcome for the Fed between a 25 bp hike and a possible pause. (ktvz.com)

On March 17, 2023, U.S. stocks fell as banking stress re‑intensified: the S&P 500 closed down 1.10% at 3,916.64, the Nasdaq slipped 0.74% to 11,630.51, and the Dow dropped 384 points (‑1.19%), even as the week ended with gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Regional banks led declines, with First Republic sinking roughly a third after suspending its dividend despite a $30 billion deposit infusion from 11 large banks the prior day. The broader mood was hit by fresh headlines that SVB Financial Group, the former parent of Silicon Valley Bank, filed for Chapter 11, while overseas tensions lingered as Credit Suisse tapped up to 50 billion Swiss francs from the Swiss National Bank. On the macro side, the University of Michigan’s preliminary March consumer sentiment fell to 63.4, signaling softer household confidence. Safe‑haven dynamics were evident beyond equities: crude oil slid toward its lowest close since December 2021 around $67, while gold rallied near 11‑month highs and toward its best week since mid‑November; earlier in the week, the 2‑year Treasury yield logged its largest three‑day drop since 1987 amid flight‑to‑quality flows. (cnbc.com)

On March 16, 2023, U.S. stocks staged a relief rally as 11 major banks placed $30 billion of deposits into First Republic Bank, easing contagion fears after days of turmoil; the S&P 500 rose 1.76% to 3,960.28, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.48% to 11,717.28, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 1.17% to 32,246.55, while Treasury yields rebounded (2‑year near 4.17% and 10‑year around 3.59%) as risk appetite improved. Confidence was also buoyed by Credit Suisse securing up to CHF 50 billion in central‑bank liquidity and by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen telling the Senate that the U.S. banking system “remains sound,” even as the European Central Bank pressed ahead with a 50‑basis‑point rate hike. Macro data released that morning showed initial jobless claims dipping to 192,000 for the week ended March 11 and February housing starts and permits surprising to the upside (1.45 million and 1.524 million annualized, respectively), while the Philly Fed manufacturing index stayed in contraction at −23.2, underscoring a mixed growth backdrop. (thesun.my)

On March 15, 2023, U.S. markets swung on banking-contagion fears and softer data: the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 3,891.93, the Dow dropped 0.9% to 31,874.57, while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.1% gain to 11,434.05 as megacap tech steadied the tape. Fresh shocks from Credit Suisse—whose shares hit record lows as its largest investor ruled out additional support—rekindled stress across global and U.S. bank stocks, pushing investors into Treasurys and driving the 10-year yield down toward 3.47%. Meanwhile, February producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% month over month and retail sales declined 0.4%, reinforcing a picture of cooling inflation and softer consumer momentum. A separate market-moving development arrived as the U.S. Surface Transportation Board approved Canadian Pacific’s $31 billion acquisition of Kansas City Southern, the first major U.S. railroad merger in decades, adding to the day’s crosscurrents and volatility. (seattletimes.com)

On March 14, 2023, U.S. stocks rebounded after a volatile start to the week, as inflation data showed headline CPI rising 0.4% month over month and 6.0% year over year in February (core 0.5% m/m and 5.5% y/y), while authorities continued working to stabilize the banking system following the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures; the S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 3,920.56, the Dow 1.1% to 32,155.40, and the Nasdaq 2.1% to 11,428.15. Short‑term Treasury yields bounced after a historic plunge the day before, Moody’s cut its outlook on the U.S. banking system to negative amid deposit‑flight risks, oil fell to a nine‑week low on growth concerns, and traders tilted toward a smaller Fed rate hike or even a pause at the March 21–22 meeting. (bls.gov)

On March 13, 2023, U.S. markets were dominated by fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures: regulators guaranteed all deposits and the Federal Reserve launched a Bank Term Funding Program, while President Biden said Americans could be confident the banking system was safe. Stocks finished mixed as bank shares plunged but falling yields buoyed tech: the Dow fell 0.3% to 31,819.14, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 3,855.76, the Nasdaq rose about 0.45% to 11,188.84, and the small‑cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.6% amid multiple trading halts in regional lenders. First Republic tumbled more than 60% despite announcing over $70 billion in available liquidity, and Treasury yields dived, with the 2‑year posting its biggest three‑day slide since 1987 as markets priced in a smaller or even no rate hike for the March 21–22 Fed meeting; overseas, HSBC bought SVB’s U.K. arm for £1 to stabilize British tech clients, and investors looked ahead to the March 14 CPI for the next policy signal. (fdic.gov)

On March 10, 2023, the U.S. labor market looked resilient but cooler at the margins, with nonfarm payrolls up 311,000 in February, unemployment ticking up to 3.6%, and wage growth easing to 0.2% month over month (4.6% year over year). Even so, markets sold off after California regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank and the FDIC was appointed receiver midday, stoking contagion fears and overshadowing the jobs data: the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 3,861.59, the Dow 1.1% to 31,909.64, the Nasdaq 1.8% to 11,138.89, and the small‑cap Russell 2000 2.9%. A flight to safety sent Treasury yields sharply lower, with the 2‑year posting its biggest two‑day drop since 2008 and the 10‑year falling about 23 basis points to roughly 3.69%. Anxiety was amplified by the high share of uninsured deposits at SVB, leaving many firms uncertain about access to cash heading into the weekend. (bls.gov)

On March 9, 2023, U.S. stocks fell broadly as banking-sector stress and hawkish Fed expectations rattled sentiment: the S&P 500 lost 1.8% to 3,918.32, the Dow fell 1.7% to 32,254.86, the Nasdaq dropped 2.1% to 11,338.35, and the Russell 2000 slid 2.8%. (apnews.com) Bank shares led the decline after Silicon Valley Bank’s parent, SVB Financial, unveiled a multibillion-dollar capital raise to plug losses on bond sales, sending its stock down about 60% and dragging the S&P banks index roughly 6.6% lower amid contagion worries, with investors also bracing for the next day’s payrolls report. (investing.com) Sentiment was further pressured by crypto-focused Silvergate Bank’s decision a day earlier to wind down and liquidate, and by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s March 7–8 testimony signaling the Fed could quicken rate hikes if warranted. (cnbc.com) Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 211,000 for the week ended March 4, the biggest jump in five months, adding to the cross-currents. (apnews.com)

On March 8, 2023, U.S. stocks ended mixed as the S&P 500 inched up 0.1% to 3,992, the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, and the Dow slipped 0.2%, stabilizing after the prior day’s selloff sparked by Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish congressional testimony; he reiterated to the House that no decision had been made on the next rate move but the Fed would accelerate if warranted. Fresh data kept the higher‑for‑longer narrative intact: ADP estimated 242,000 private‑sector job gains for February and the BLS reported 10.8 million January job openings—evidence of a still‑tight labor market. Rates stayed elevated, with the 2‑year Treasury yield hovering near 5% (first topped a day earlier), pressuring equity valuations. After the close, risk sentiment faced new shocks as crypto‑focused Silvergate said it would voluntarily liquidate and SVB’s parent outlined a $2.25 billion capital raise after realizing a $1.8 billion loss on securities sales, stoking concern around regional banks and the startup ecosystem. (apnews.com)

On March 7, 2023, U.S. stocks fell broadly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate the ultimate level of interest rates would likely be higher than previously anticipated and that the Fed was prepared to speed up hikes if needed; the S&P 500 closed down 1.5%, the Dow fell about 575 points (‑1.7%), and the Nasdaq lost 1.2%. The policy‑sensitive two‑year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2007 while the 10‑year hovered just below 4%, pushing the 2s/10s yield curve to its deepest inversion in decades; the U.S. dollar index jumped to a roughly three‑month high as traders priced in higher-for-longer rates and sharply raised the odds of a 50‑basis‑point move at the March 21–22 FOMC. The day’s data showed January consumer credit rising at a 3.7% annualized pace, and the Justice Department sued to block JetBlue’s $3.8 billion purchase of Spirit Airlines—news that also grabbed investors’ attention. (apnews.com)

On Monday, March 6, 2023, U.S. stocks finished mixed as investors stayed cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s March 7–8 testimony and key labor data: the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 4,048, the Dow gained 0.1%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.5%. Treasury yields hovered near recent highs while new data showed January factory orders fell 1.6%, pointing to softer goods demand. Sentiment was also shaped by headlines: crude prices eased after China set a modest 2023 GDP growth target of about 5%; Altria agreed to buy e‑cig maker NJOY for $2.75 billion; Tesla cut U.S. prices on the Model S and X; and Norfolk Southern unveiled new safety measures following the East Palestine derailment, while ongoing stress around crypto lender Silvergate after it suspended its payments network kept that corner of the market volatile. (apnews.com)

On March 3, 2023, U.S. stocks rallied as Treasury yields eased, with the S&P 500 up about 1.6%, the Nasdaq near 2%, and the Dow adding roughly 387 points, capping the first winning week in four; the 10‑year Treasury yield fell back below 4% to around 3.97%. Fresh data showed the services side of the economy remained resilient: the ISM Services PMI for February registered 55.1, with new orders at 62.6 and employment at 54.0 while prices paid cooled to 65.6, even as earlier-in-the-week ISM Manufacturing for February stayed in contraction at 47.7; weekly initial jobless claims also remained low near 190,000, underscoring a still-tight labor market. Leadership tilted toward mega‑cap tech as easing yields reduced pressure on growth stocks, and the overall tone suggested investors were balancing services-sector strength against lingering inflation and policy uncertainty. (apnews.com)

On Thursday, March 2, 2023, U.S. stocks reversed early losses as investors weighed a still‑tight labor market against signs the Federal Reserve would stick with a measured pace of hikes. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 3,981.35, the Dow added 341 points to 33,003.57, and the Nasdaq gained 0.7% to 11,462.98. Treasury yields briefly pushed above 4% on the 10‑year and near 4.9% on the 2‑year after initial jobless claims fell to 190,000 for the week ended February 25 and Q4 unit labor costs rose 3.2%, before easing as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated support for “slow and steady” quarter‑point increases. Notable single‑stock moves shaped sentiment: Salesforce surged nearly 12% on strong earnings and guidance, Tesla fell about 6% after an underwhelming Investor Day, and crypto‑exposed bank Silvergate plunged after delaying its annual report and warning on its viability. (apnews.com)

On March 1, 2023, U.S. stocks ended mixed as investors digested higher-for-longer rate expectations: the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 3,951.39, the Dow inched up, and the Nasdaq declined, while small caps were little changed. (apnews.com) Bond markets signaled tighter financial conditions, with the 10‑year Treasury yield briefly topping 4% for the first time since November, deepening the inversion versus the 2‑year and reinforcing recession worries. (cnbc.com) Fresh data showed manufacturing remained in contraction in February (ISM PMI 47.7), and January construction spending slipped 0.1%, underscoring pockets of economic softness. (ismworld.org) Overseas, China’s official PMI jumped to 52.6, helping lift crude prices as traders bet on improving demand. (stats.gov.cn) After the close, Salesforce beat and raised guidance, sending shares sharply higher after hours, while Tesla’s Investor Day underwhelmed, pressuring the stock in extended trading; Rivian slumped on weak outlook and recall headlines. (cnbc.com) Separately, Eli Lilly announced sweeping insulin price cuts and a $35 monthly cap, a policy headline with potential market implications. (investor.lilly.com)