Market conditions

On July 31, 2024 the Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at a 5.25%–5.50% range and signaled that, with inflation moving closer to target and signs of a cooling labor market, officials were increasingly open to trimming rates later in the year; Chair Jerome Powell’s post‑meeting remarks that “the time is approaching” for a cut helped fuel a risk‑on rally—the S&P 500 jumped roughly 1.6% and the Nasdaq rose about 2.6% as rate‑sensitive technology and semiconductor names led a rebound amid upbeat corporate news and expectations of easier policy. (federalreserve.gov)

On July 30, 2024 U.S. markets were broadly mixed as investors entered a busy week of big-tech earnings and the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, with the Dow modestly lower while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed only small moves amid intra-day volatility; market participants were watching cooling-but-still-strong labor data — the BLS JOLTS report showed job openings roughly unchanged at about 8.2 million — and reacting to earnings news that drove swings in megacap tech names, all against a backdrop of renewed Middle East tensions that added risk-off impulses to trading. (nasdaq.com)

On July 29, 2024 the U.S. market was mixed and cautiously positioned: the Nasdaq was modestly higher while the S&P 500 was essentially flat and the Dow was slightly lower as investors digested a stronger-than-expected advance Q2 GDP print released July 25 that showed 2.8% annualized growth and awaited the Federal Reserve’s July 30–31 FOMC meeting; benchmark Treasury yields eased (the 10‑year was about 4.18%) as traders weighed slowing inflation readings and the growing expectation that the Fed would keep rates on hold before potential cuts later in the year, and equity leadership continued to rotate away from the largest mega‑cap tech names toward a broader, more value- and small‑cap–led advance. (thechartreport.com)

On July 26, 2024 the U.S. economy looked resilient and markets were riding a mix of upbeat macro data and ongoing political noise: the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate showed second‑quarter GDP unexpectedly strong at a 2.8% annualized pace, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (the PCE index) showed inflation continuing to moderate (headline PCE about 2.5% year‑over‑year and core PCE roughly in the mid‑2% range), which together pushed investors to price an increased probability of Fed rate cuts later in the year; stocks finished the week with a rebound — major indexes rallied (S&P and Nasdaq moved higher and the Dow surged) amid volatile sector rotation and earnings headlines — even as markets continued to digest the political shock from President Biden’s withdrawal from the re‑election race earlier in the week, all of which left Treasury yields and risk sentiment swinging through the session. (bea.gov)

On July 25, 2024 U.S. markets were mixed and choppy as investors absorbed a tech-led selloff from the prior session and the government’s advance Q2 GDP report: the BEA’s advance estimate showed real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate while the PCE inflation measures slowed, a combination that both soothed recession fears and complicated the timing of Fed rate cuts; the previous day’s weakness had pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply lower (with the Nasdaq posting its worst single-day drop since 2022), lifted the VIX into the high teens and drove heavy options hedging activity on the Nasdaq 100, and on July 25 markets oscillated between bargain buying in smaller, value-oriented names and continued pressure on mega-cap AI/tech leaders. (bea.gov)

As of July 24, 2024, the US economy is experiencing moderate growth, evidenced by a reasonably stable job market and steady consumer spending. The stock market shows mixed performance, with some sectors benefiting from technological advancements and others facing pressure due to rising interest rates and inflationary concerns. Investors are cautiously optimistic, closely monitoring economic indicators such as inflation rates and Federal Reserve policies, which influence market sentiment and trading behavior.

On July 23, 2024 U.S. markets were choppy but generally firm as investors digested a fresh wave of corporate earnings and mixed economic data: the Nasdaq led gains (roughly +1.5–1.6%) while the S&P 500 and Dow showed smaller moves as traders rotated back into technology after a prior sell‑off and ahead of heavy megacap reports; the session turned volatile into and after the close when Tesla’s quarterly report disappointed on margins and prompted an after‑hours selloff while Alphabet reported solid Q2 results, and benchmark Treasury yields ticked higher with the 10‑year near the mid‑4% area — all against a backdrop of weakening existing‑home sales for June and a still mixed read on consumer sentiment, leaving investors focused on earnings, rate expectations and AI/semiconductor developments. (nasdaq.com)

On July 22, 2024 U.S. equity markets were mixed-to-positive with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq staging a rebound (the S&P recorded roughly a 1% gain on the day as investors cheered softer inflation prints and renewed hopes for Fed easing later in the year), a backdrop driven by a cooler-than-expected June CPI that pushed market odds of a September rate cut higher and encouraged risk-on positioning even as pockets of mega-cap tech weakness persisted; investors were rotating out of the prior stretch of AI/mega-cap concentration into smaller-cap and cyclically sensitive names while earnings season and idiosyncratic headlines continued to move individual stocks. (cnbc.com)

On July 19, 2024 U.S. equity markets pulled back from recent record highs as a rotation out of big tech and momentum names weighed on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow (roughly a 0.7–1.3% decline across the major indexes), while Treasury yields ticked higher (the 10‑year around the mid‑4% range) and the dollar strengthened—market sentiment that day was shaped both by continued cooling inflation/greater Fed rate‑cut hopes and by an unexpected, large global IT outage that briefly rattled confidence. The outage—caused by a faulty CrowdStrike Falcon sensor update—disrupted airlines, banks, hospitals and broadcasters and knocked CrowdStrike shares sharply lower, adding an idiosyncratic shock to an otherwise policy‑ and data‑driven market backdrop as investors parsed earnings, growth signals and evolving interest‑rate expectations. (nasdaq.com)

On July 18, 2024 the U.S. economy showed signs of a soft-landing in official data even as markets were mixed: the Dow set a fresh record above 41,000 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 slipped (the Nasdaq falling roughly 2.7–2.8% and the S&P off around about 0.8–1.1%), driven by a sharp rotation out of megacap tech and a selloff in chip names after reports that the U.S. government was weighing tighter export controls on advanced semiconductor sales to China and by heightened geopolitical rhetoric around Taiwan; at the same time June activity data surprised to the upside (housing starts and building permits rose, industrial production increased) the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to 13.9, and the Fed’s Beige Book described slight-to-solid growth, all of which left markets factoring in an eventual Fed rate-cut path and kept 10‑year Treasury yields in the mid‑4% area. (nasdaq.com)

On July 17, 2024 U.S. markets were mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a record close (about 41,198.08) even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply, driven by a broad rotation out of megacap tech and a steep sell‑off in semiconductor stocks after reports that the U.S. government was considering tighter export controls on advanced chip technology to China; the semiconductor group suffered one of its worst single‑day drops and the sector lost hundreds of billions in market value, while economic prints that day (including stronger‑than‑expected industrial production and housing starts) plus Fed commentary and the Fed’s Beige Book left investors balancing hopes for eventual rate cuts with risks from geopolitical trade policy. (cnbc.com)

On July 16, 2024 U.S. markets were broadly upbeat: the Dow closed at a fresh record and the S&P 500 pushed to new highs as investors cheered stronger-than-expected June retail sales (which came in roughly flat month-over-month but beat forecasts), dovish Fed commentary that left a September rate cut on the table and upbeat corporate results (notably UnitedHealth’s better-than-expected Q2), prompting a rotation into smaller-cap and cyclical names even as semiconductor shares came under pressure after reports the U.S. was weighing tougher export/trade curbs to China; at the same time Treasury yields eased (the 10-year moved lower toward the mid-4% area) and gold climbed to record levels as rate-cut odds rose. (washingtonpost.com)

On July 15, 2024 U.S. markets traded with a bullish tilt: major indexes pushed near or to fresh highs (the Dow recorded a new close at 40,211.72) as investors balanced a political shock — the July 13 attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump, which altered election odds and drove a short-term “Trump trade” risk-on reaction — against dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said recent data had increased policymakers’ confidence that inflation is moving toward target and left open the prospect of rate cuts; the net effect was firmer equities and a rotation in leadership as markets absorbed both political and policy news. (pbs.org)

On July 12, 2024 U.S. markets were reacting to a shockingly soft inflation print (June CPI, released July 11, 2024) that showed headline CPI down 0.1% month‑over‑month and 3.0% year‑over‑year with core CPI cooling as well, which pushed Treasury yields lower and sharply increased market odds of a Fed rate cut later in the year; that shift produced a mixed, risk‑on tone—small‑caps and rate‑sensitive parts of the market rallied while some mega‑cap technology names saw profit‑taking and volatility, leaving headline indexes uneven (with intraweek record highs in parts of the market but notable sector divergence). (proinvestnews.com)

On July 11, 2024 the U.S. economic picture looked cautiously positive on the inflation front but mixed elsewhere: the June CPI report showed cooling price pressures (year‑over‑year inflation eased versus May) and weekly jobless claims fell, reinforcing signs of easing inflation and a still‑resilient labor market, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony underscored that a weakening jobs market is now a material risk even as the Fed maintained a restrictive policy stance; markets reacted with a modest pullback from recent highs—S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated intraday after touching records earlier, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq notably weaker—and idiosyncratic headlines such as a Bloomberg report that Tesla delayed its robotaxi unveiling sent Tesla shares sharply lower, weighing on broader sentiment. (cnbc.com)

On July 10, 2024 U.S. equity markets were buoyant: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs driven by gains in Nvidia and other megacap technology names as investors reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony that “more good data” would strengthen the case for interest-rate cuts. (pacsunfinancial.com) Treasury yields edged lower (the 10-year traded around the mid-4% area, roughly 4.28%) after a well‑received 10‑year auction and Powell’s dovish-leaning comments, while trading volume was relatively light as markets awaited June’s CPI and the start of second‑quarter earnings; semiconductor suppliers also received a boost after Taiwan Semiconductor reported stronger‑than‑expected quarterly revenue. (marketscreener.com)

On July 9, 2024 U.S. equity markets were cautiously optimistic: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched fresh record highs led by megacap technology and semiconductor strength while breadth remained narrow and the Dow lagged; investors were parsing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony (in which he said the economy was “no longer overheated,” flagged a cooling labor market and stressed that “more good data” on inflation would strengthen the case for cuts) and were also bracing for key inflation reports (CPI/PPI) later in the week, so sentiment was buoyant but watchful. (nasdaq.com)

On July 8, 2024 the U.S. stock market was broadly buoyant: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite notched fresh record closes as a rally concentrated in large-cap, AI- and semiconductor-related names (including strength in chipmakers) pushed major indexes higher, even as investors positioned for Federal Reserve testimony and the start of the corporate earnings season; at the same time markets were digesting breaking news that Boeing agreed to plead guilty in connection with the 737 MAX investigation and the arrival of Hurricane Beryl in Texas, which introduced regionally concentrated risks to energy, utilities and insurance exposure that could influence near-term sentiment. (apnews.com)

On July 5, 2024, a cooler-but-still-growing U.S. economy set a risk-on tone: the June employment report showed nonfarm payrolls up 206,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% and wage growth moderated to 0.3% month over month (3.9% year over year), with prior months revised down by a net 111,000—signals of easing labor-market momentum that nudged Treasury yields lower (the 10‑year fell to around 4.28%) and lifted rate‑sensitive equities. Stocks closed at fresh records as the S&P 500 gained 0.54% to 5,567.19 and the Nasdaq rose 0.90% to 18,352.76, while the Dow added 0.17% to 39,375.87; sentiment also digested a rare downgrade of Nvidia that tempered some chip enthusiasm intraday and hurricane watches posted for the Texas Gulf Coast as Beryl approached, a development on investors’ radar for energy and insurance exposures. Overall, the day’s mix—softening jobs, lower yields, and record equity closes—reinforced expectations for easier Fed policy later in 2024. (bls.gov)

On July 3, 2024 the U.S. market closed early for the Independence Day holiday but delivered a risk-on session: large-cap tech and AI-related names (notably Nvidia and Tesla) powered gains that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward fresh highs even as macro data showed cracks — the ISM non‑manufacturing (services) PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction at 48.8, while the ADP private payrolls read below expectations, prompting markets to price in earlier Fed easing and sending Treasury yields lower; traders also parsed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the ECB’s Sintra forum, which were read as cautious and reinforced the sense that the Fed would wait for more data before cutting rates, leaving equities buoyed by strong mega‑cap earnings/AI momentum but sensitive to incoming economic prints. (ismworld.org)

On July 2, 2024 the U.S. market pushed higher after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at the ECB Forum in Sintra that the U.S. appears to be on a disinflationary path but that policymakers need more data before they can be confident enough to cut rates; his remarks, coupled with easing Treasury yields, helped lift large-cap tech and other growth names and drove major indexes to fresh records — the S&P 500 closed above the 5,500 level (about 5,509), the Nasdaq Composite crossed the 18,000 mark (with the Nasdaq‑100 also hitting milestones), while the Dow rose modestly — a picture of a market rallying on hopes for eventual rate relief but still mindful of sticky inflation and mixed labor‑market signals. (investing.com)

As of July 1, 2024, the U.S. economy was exhibiting steady growth, with real GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment. The labor market remained resilient, adding 206,000 jobs in June, though the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.1%. Inflation showed signs of moderation, with the Consumer Price Index rising by 3.0% year-over-year in June, down from 3.3% in May. Financial markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.08% in June, bringing its year-to-date return to 15.78%.