Market conditions

On Friday, July 31, 2026, U.S. markets were balancing slower growth and still‑elevated inflation against blockbuster Big Tech earnings. The government’s advance read showed GDP growing at a 1.5% annual rate in Q2 while June PCE inflation ran at 3.7% year over year, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve even after it left rates unchanged on July 29 amid notable dissents. Stocks were coming off a powerful rebound Thursday led by Microsoft, with the Dow and Nasdaq surging, and attention turned to how investors would digest Apple’s and Amazon’s after‑hours beats alongside the morning’s Employment Cost Index and other activity gauges; oil’s jump earlier in the week and rate jitters kept sentiment headline‑sensitive. Overall, the day opened as a test of whether strong mega‑cap results could offset concerns about sticky inflation and labor costs after a choppy, news‑driven week. (apnews.com)

As of Thursday, July 30, 2026, the U.S. economy looks slower but resilient: the advance GDP report showed 1.5% annualized growth in Q2 with consumer spending accelerating, while June PCE inflation ran at 3.7% year over year and core at 3.3%, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve, which left rates unchanged yesterday amid notable dissents favoring a hike; weekly jobless claims ticked up to 197,000 but remain low by historical standards. Equity markets were digesting a sharp Wednesday sell-off led by AI chip names, mixed Big Tech earnings (Microsoft beat while Meta underwhelmed), and the after-the-bell reports due from Apple and Amazon, with sentiment also shaped by recent oil-price volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict. (axios.com)

As of Wednesday, July 29, 2026, U.S. markets are mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with premarket trading showing S&P 500 futures slightly higher and Dow futures a touch lower as oil prices jump on renewed Middle East tensions and a sharp selloff in Asian chipmakers weighs on sentiment; this follows Tuesday’s split close in which the Dow rose about 1%, the S&P 500 edged up, and the Nasdaq slipped. On the macro side, June CPI fell 0.4% month over month but rose 3.5% year over year, core CPI held at 2.6% YoY, the June unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, and July consumer confidence eased to 90.8—painting a picture of slowing price pressures outside energy, a still-stable labor market, and more cautious households. Traders are also bracing for mega-cap tech earnings after the bell from Microsoft and Meta, events that could swing broader risk appetite later today. (apnews.com)

As of Tuesday, July 28, 2026, U.S. stocks were mixed in early trading, with the Nasdaq under pressure as semiconductor shares slumped after reports that China began mass‑producing immersion DUV lithography tools and after CXMT’s blockbuster Shanghai debut; at the same time, oil extended Monday’s sharp slide as Washington and Tehran paused strikes, nudging Treasury yields lower ahead of a two‑day Fed meeting that concludes Wednesday and key data (Conference Board consumer confidence today; Q2 GDP and PCE on Thursday). Recent releases show inflation cooled in June and core capital‑goods orders and shipments firmed, pointing to still‑resilient growth even as policy uncertainty remains elevated. (investing.com)

As of Monday, July 27, 2026, U.S. stocks were set for a cautiously risk‑on open after the United States and Iran paused hostilities over the weekend, sending crude prices sharply lower and lifting travel‑ and fuel‑sensitive shares while weighing on energy producers; the dollar also eased and global risk sentiment firmed ahead of a heavy week for earnings and the Fed. (ca.marketscreener.com) Fresh data showed business investment holding up: core capital goods orders rose 0.9% in June and shipments jumped 1.9%, consistent with a roughly 2%‑plus annualized GDP pace into Thursday’s advance Q2 release. (streetinsider.com) Long rates edged down with the 10‑year Treasury yield near 4.65%, trimming some of last week’s jump that had pressured equities. (tradingeconomics.com) The market is also bracing for Wednesday’s FOMC decision and press conference, the first under the current leadership’s new cadence, keeping rate‑path uncertainty elevated. (fred.stlouisfed.org) For context, on Friday, July 24, the Dow rose while the Nasdaq slipped as yields eased, underscoring the recent push‑pull between value/cyclicals and growth megacaps. (apnews.com)

On Friday, July 24, 2026, U.S. markets were stabilizing after a tech-led selloff the prior session, when the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, the Nasdaq 2.2% and the Dow 1.0% on sharp post‑earnings drops in Alphabet and Tesla and a spike in Brent crude above $100 a barrel; early Friday, oil slipped back and equity futures edged modestly higher as investors weighed the Trump administration’s newly announced 10%–12.5% tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners alongside continued Middle East tensions, with the 10‑year Treasury yield still elevated; the macro backdrop shows inflation cooling to 3.5% year‑over‑year in June CPI and unemployment at 4.2%, with July flash PMIs and June new‑home sales due later today and the next Fed meeting set for July 28–29. (apnews.com)

As of Thursday, July 23, 2026, sentiment across U.S. markets is cautious: oil has surged with Brent crude pushing toward $100 on escalating Middle East tensions, pressuring futures and reviving inflation worries even as June CPI showed a 0.4% month‑over‑month decline and core inflation cooled to 2.6% year over year; weekly jobless claims fell to 187,000—lowest since 1969—underscoring a still‑resilient labor market; the Fed is holding the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with its next decision due July 28–29, while longer‑term Treasury yields hover in the mid‑4.6% range; earnings remain a swing factor after Alphabet beat estimates but stoked fresh debate over heavy AI capital spending, and premarket movers included RTX after raising guidance and airlines reacting to fuel costs, leaving equities choppy and tilting lower into the session. (apnews.com)

As of Wednesday, July 22, 2026, the U.S. market tone is cautious: stock index futures are lower before the open after overnight U.S.–Iran exchanges pushed oil sharply higher, with Brent crude nearing the mid‑$90s and average U.S. gasoline prices ticking above $4.00, stoking fresh inflation worries and a stronger dollar. The macro calendar is quiet today and attention is fixed on a heavy earnings slate and the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting after a volatile stretch in equities; sentiment was helped yesterday when the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% on an AI-led rebound, but today’s premarket is softer, with semis mixed and Super Micro Computer jumping on a bullish preliminary update even as broader futures slip. With few data releases to anchor direction, oil’s spike, earnings headlines, and geopolitical risk are setting the day’s risk appetite and rate expectations.

As of Tuesday, July 21, 2026, U.S. markets were trading cautiously as investors balanced cooler June inflation data against volatile energy headlines and a heavy earnings slate. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month in June and the Producer Price Index declined 0.3%, developments that eased near‑term rate‑hike odds ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. (bls.gov) Semiconductor shares steadied after last week’s slide, while attention turned to today’s reports from companies including General Motors, 3M, Northrop Grumman, Halliburton, Charles Schwab and Danaher, with megacap tech due starting Wednesday. (apnews.com) Oil prices whipsawed as Yemen’s Houthis threatened a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia amid ongoing U.S.–Iran hostilities, even as mediators pursued a ceasefire—moves that kept energy markets and Treasury yields on edge. (apnews.com) June retail sales rose 0.2%, pointing to a still‑resilient consumer backdrop. (census.gov)

On Monday, July 20, 2026, U.S. markets were stabilizing after last week’s pullback: stock-index futures pointed higher (S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1%) as oil eased in early U.S. trade from a weekend spike, even as the national average gasoline price returned to $4 per gallon amid intensifying U.S.–Iran hostilities. Overnight, Brent crude briefly topped $90 before slipping back by premarket, while corporate news included Domino’s rallying after a Q2 revenue beat and buyback and AMC surging on record quarterly sales. Macro data provided a mixed tailwind: June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year (core +2.6% y/y), June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, and the Fed’s June minutes reaffirmed a 3.5%–3.75% policy range with the next FOMC decision due July 28–29. Ongoing strikes between the U.S. and Iran, plus reports of attacks on shipping, kept risk premia and inflation expectations in focus. (apnews.com)

On Friday, July 17, 2026, U.S. stocks were set to open lower and on track for weekly losses as a deepening selloff in AI‑linked chipmakers weighed on sentiment, with futures sliding and a weak outlook from Netflix adding pressure; at the same time, oil jumped after the United States expanded airstrikes on Iran overnight, lifting Brent toward the mid‑$80s and WTI near $81 and rekindling inflation worries. June inflation data earlier in the week eased some rate fears (headline CPI +3.5% year over year and −0.4% month over month; core +2.6% y/y), while June retail sales rose a modest 0.2% headline but showed underlying resilience ex‑gas, and weekly jobless claims fell to 208,000, underscoring a still‑stable labor market; the University of Michigan’s preliminary July sentiment reading around 51.4 pointed to a small improvement from June. Volatility may also be amplified by monthly options expiration today, and the S&P 500’s 0.5% decline on Thursday left indexes off recent highs. (fidelity.com)

As of Thursday, July 16, 2026, U.S. markets began the session cautiously after a two-day advance, with semiconductor shares under pressure even after TSMC’s blockbuster results, while a strong beat and guidance hike from UnitedHealth supported defensive pockets; on the macro front, June retail sales rose 0.2% month over month (0.7% excluding gas stations), weekly jobless claims fell to 208,000, and earlier-in-the-week inflation readings cooled (June CPI down 0.4% m/m; June PPI down 0.3% m/m), alongside a Fed Beige Book describing steady growth—together painting a picture of easing price pressures and resilient demand but narrower market leadership and lingering headline risk from geopolitics. (au.marketscreener.com)

On Wednesday, July 15, 2026, U.S. markets were stabilizing after a cooler inflation one‑two punch and fresh geopolitical shocks: June CPI slowed to 3.5% year over year and fell 0.3% on the month, and today’s producer prices also declined 0.3% month over month; Treasury yields eased from earlier highs, with the 10‑year hovering in the mid‑4.6% area, while oil prices firmed as the U.S. reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran threatened broader energy export disruptions. Equities were cautiously higher early as investors weighed strong bank results (including Goldman Sachs’ robust Q2) against lingering tech fragility after IBM’s roughly 25% plunge on a revenue/EPS warning; attention also remained on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, which reaffirmed a focus on restoring price stability without offering guidance on the next rate move. With June retail sales due Thursday morning, the day’s tone reflected a push‑pull between disinflationary data, higher energy risk premia, and resilient earnings from financials. (bls.gov)

On July 14, 2026, the U.S. economy delivered a cooler June CPI print, with headline inflation down 0.4% month over month and up 3.5% year over year, while core CPI rose 2.6% year over year; the drop was led by a 5.7% decline in energy and a 9.7% slide in gasoline, helping S&P 500 futures turn positive even as traders weighed whether the relief could prove temporary. Risk appetite remained fragile because Brent crude rebounded to roughly $86–$87 a barrel after a near-10% surge Monday, and Treasury yields hovered near two‑month highs around 4.62% on the 10‑year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in congressional testimony, reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability without signaling an imminent policy move. A notable policy development also hit the tape: New York imposed a one‑year statewide moratorium on permits for large new data centers, injecting fresh regulatory uncertainty into AI infrastructure. (bls.gov)

On Monday, July 13, 2026, U.S. stocks opened mixed to slightly higher as investors weighed a jump in oil prices, firming Treasury yields, and a softer gold price ahead of Tuesday’s June CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony; SPY and QQQ were modestly positive while DIA hovered near flat, VIX proxies ticked up, long-duration Treasuries dipped, crude proxies rallied, and gold slipped (SPY +0.39%, QQQ +0.28%, DIA +0.08%, VIXY +1.38%, TLT −0.34%, USO +2.9%, GLD −1.15% intraday). Oil’s rise and a new round of U.S.–Iran attacks set a cautious tone and pressured chip and memory names in early trading, while last week’s action saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advance and the Dow slip for the week as investors looked to the coming data and earnings. (apnews.com) Inflation remains the key macro overhang after May CPI topped 4% year over year, and markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates near term while keeping a potential September hike in play. (cbsnews.com)

On Friday, July 10, 2026, U.S. stocks came into the session after a Thursday rebound that saw the Dow up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, as oil volatility tied to renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities eased somewhat and the 10‑year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.54% on the day, helping broader risk appetite. Investors are digesting Fed minutes showing a divided committee under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with policy left on hold at a 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range and officials highlighting upside inflation risks, while the June jobs report pointed to slower payroll growth (+57,000) even as unemployment fell to 4.2%. Next week’s CPI release (July 14) and the kickoff of bank earnings, including JPMorgan’s report that morning, loom large; chips remain in focus with SK Hynix’s ADR debut today. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to fluctuate as markets assess fresh U.S. strikes and Iranian responses, alongside OPEC+ signals of modest August output increases, leaving the market cautiously resilient into the weekend. (apnews.com)

As of Thursday, July 9, 2026, U.S. markets were cautious after a volatile prior session: the S&P 500 closed down about 0.3% on Wednesday after President Trump said an interim Iran ceasefire was “over,” while early Thursday futures were mixed as oil extended gains on news of fresh U.S. strikes and Iranian reprisals in the Gulf. (marketscreener.com) Weekly jobless claims edged down to 215,000 for the week ended July 4, signaling still‑low layoffs even as June hiring slowed and unemployment ticked to 4.2%. (apnews.com) Minutes released July 8 showed a divided Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh on the inflation path and future rate moves, keeping policy expectations highly data‑dependent. (apnews.com) Oil’s jump and a firm U.S. dollar added cross‑currents for risk assets as traders weighed energy‑driven inflation risks against moderating growth signals. (au.investing.com)

On Wednesday, July 8, 2026, U.S. markets were risk-off: oil prices jumped more than 5% (Brent in the high-$70s, WTI mid-$70s) after President Donald Trump said the interim accord with Iran is “over,” following U.S. strikes and a move to reimpose oil sanctions, lifting energy while pressuring broader risk assets and nudging Treasury yields higher. (live.euronext.com) U.S. equity futures fell roughly 0.7%–1.3% premarket, with tech and semiconductors under particular pressure after a global chip selloff tied in part to Samsung’s slump, while the dollar firmed and gold eased; investors also awaited minutes from the Fed’s June meeting—the first under Chair Kevin Warsh—for policy clues. (investing.com) The macro backdrop showed moderation rather than weakness: June payrolls rose about 57,000 and unemployment hovered near 4.2%, suggesting a cooling but still resilient labor market as energy-driven inflation risks persist. (investing.com) After Tuesday’s declines (S&P 500 −0.4%, Nasdaq −1.2%), the day’s tone reflected renewed geopolitical risk and higher-rate jitters. (apnews.com)

As of Tuesday, July 7, 2026, U.S. stocks are coming off a tech-led rebound that pushed the Dow to a record above 53,000 and lifted the S&P 500 by 0.7% on Monday, while premarket on Tuesday looked mixed-to-weaker as chip shares wobbled despite Samsung’s blowout profit guidance; traders are focused on Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes amid an otherwise light data slate. Oil, which slid into the low $70s last week on signs of progress in U.S.–Iran talks, firmed after reports overnight that a tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy and inflation expectations in focus. The macro backdrop remains “cooling but resilient” after the June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 57,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, developments that tempered near‑term rate‑hike bets and left Treasury yields little changed to slightly lower since late last week. (apnews.com)

On Monday, July 6, 2026, U.S. markets reopened after the July 3 Independence Day closure with futures broadly firmer as chip stocks stabilized, while crude slid after OPEC+ said Sunday it would raise August output by 188,000 bpd; investors also eyed a light data slate and Wednesday’s release of the June FOMC minutes under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. June’s jobs report pointed to a cooling but resilient economy (nonfarm payrolls +57,000, unemployment 4.2%, average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m, +3.5% y/y), and the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June, still in expansion; the ISM Services report is due later today at 10:00 a.m. ET. Treasury yields remain in the mid‑4s as markets gauge the risk of a later‑year hike signaled by some Fed officials, while geopolitics remain a swing factor: reports of fresh Ukrainian drone damage to Russian energy export ports and uncertainty around fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz have tempered the oil move even as prices eased this morning. (nyse.com)

On Thursday, July 2, 2026, the U.S. economy showed a cooler labor pulse as nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, prior months were revised down, the average workweek was steady and wages increased 0.3% month over month (3.5% year over year). (bls.gov) U.S. equity futures firmed after the softer print as rate‑hike odds eased, while early cash trading was thin into the long weekend and chip stocks remained under pressure following recent declines. (ca.marketscreener.com) Commodities and FX reflected the growth‑cooling mix: oil fell toward the high‑$60s (WTI) and low‑$70s (Brent) on signs of progress in U.S.–Iran talks, the dollar weakened, and gold ticked higher. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) As a policy backdrop, investors also continued to digest the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling that preserved the Federal Reserve’s independence by blocking the President’s immediate removal of Governor Lisa Cook. (apnews.com)

On July 1, 2026, U.S. stocks started the second half on a firmer footing, with the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, the S&P 500 roughly 0.5% and the Dow around 0.3%, while real estate and utilities lagged; the tone was shaped by a softer‑than‑expected ADP private‑payrolls gain of 98,000 for June, anticipation of the mid‑morning ISM manufacturing update, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s high‑profile appearance in Sintra that underscored his pared‑back forward‑guidance stance; alongside equities, the 10‑year Treasury yield hovered near the mid‑4.4% area after a recent jump, Brent crude traded around the low‑$70s as U.S.–Iran ceasefire efforts stumbled, and banks continued to digest last week’s Fed stress‑test pass and ensuing dividend/buyback plans; late‑June Supreme Court rulings that expand presidential removal power over regulators and loosen coordinated party‑candidate spending added a fresh policy backdrop for risk assets. (china.org.cn)