Market conditions

On August 30, 2024 U.S. equities ended the month on a constructive note: the Dow logged a fresh record close (about 41,563), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose roughly 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively, as investors parsed a batch of data and corporate results that pointed to a still‑resilient economy but cooler inflation. July’s personal‑income and outlays report showed personal income up about 0.3%, consumer spending rising roughly 0.5%, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE) increasing 0.2% month‑over‑month and about 2.6% year‑over‑year, a combination that reinforced market expectations that the Fed could begin trimming policy in September (money‑market pricing placed the odds of a 25 bps cut at roughly two‑thirds). Markets were nevertheless volatile beneath the surface: earnings news—most prominently choppy reactions to large tech/AI names—created uneven breadth even as small caps and some value/real‑estate names attracted buying, while the 10‑year Treasury yield traded near the high‑3% area as traders adjusted rate‑cut odds and repositioned across stocks and bonds. (cnbc.com)

On August 29, 2024 U.S. markets were mixed but leaned toward a modest pullback as investors digested a string of corporate headlines and macro updates: the Nasdaq Composite slid roughly 1.1% while the S&P 500 fell about 0.6% as momentum in richly valued tech names cooled, even as the Dow reached a fresh record close that day; volatility was amplified by Nvidia’s quarterly report (beats on the quarter but guidance and margin commentary disappointed), which sent the stock sharply lower in after‑hours trading and pressured chip and AI‑exposure groups, while economic releases that day included a BEA revision showing stronger second‑quarter GDP and slightly lower core inflation — a mix that left markets uneasy about near‑term earnings momentum even as growth and inflation trends pointed toward a less‑heated outlook. (nasdaq.com)

On August 28, 2024 U.S. equities slipped as investors took profits and braced for a string of high‑profile earnings and incoming economic prints: the S&P 500 finished the day down roughly 0.6%, the Nasdaq fell about 1.1% and the Dow dipped near 0.4% (Dow close roughly 41,091), while Nvidia — the most watched name that day — reported record quarterly revenue after the close but traded lower in after‑hours despite beating estimates; at the same time Conference Board consumer confidence edged up to 103.3 for August, Treasury yields had moved lower through the month with the two‑ and ten‑year notes trading in the high‑3% area, and markets were pricing a meaningful probability of a September Fed rate cut, leaving sentiment particularly sensitive to big‑tech/AI earnings and shifting rate expectations. (barchart.com)

On August 27, 2024 U.S. equity markets were cautious and a touch bifurcated: the S&P 500 eked out a small gain to close around 5,625.80, the Nasdaq also rose slightly to about 17,754.82 and the Dow finished near 41,250.50 as investors consolidated recent gains and sat on the sidelines ahead of a slew of high‑profile events. Market sentiment was being shaped by Federal Reserve signals that a rate cut was likely in September after Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, which pushed down Treasury yields and supported risk assets, while at the same time traders were closely watching Nvidia’s impending after‑hours earnings report as a bellwether for the AI/software trade; commodity and safe‑haven flows reacted to fresh geopolitical and supply shocks after reports that Libya’s eastern authorities moved to halt oil production and exports, sending oil prices higher and adding a risk premium to energy markets—overall a wait‑and‑see tone with pockets of tech strength but clear sensitivity to monetary‑policy cues and oil‑supply news. (cnbc.com)

On August 26, 2024 U.S. markets were trading in a risk-on mode driven largely by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish turn at the Jackson Hole symposium—“the time has come” for policy to adjust—which pushed investors to price in imminent rate cuts, helped send Treasury yields lower and buoyed equities even as pockets of volatility remained. Equity indices were mixed-to-strong that day with the Dow at fresh highs while technology names showed rotation and some profit-taking ahead of big earnings (notably Nvidia later in the week); incoming data that day reinforced a mixed macro picture — a volatile but headline-strong jump in July durable-goods orders (driven by transportation/aircraft) and an improved Dallas Fed manufacturing reading — while oil spiked on reports of Libyan export shutdowns and heightened Middle East tensions, adding inflation and supply-risk focus for markets. (investing.com)

On August 23, 2024 U.S. markets moved sharply on Jerome Powell’s widely watched Jackson Hole remarks — Powell said “the time has come” for policy to adjust, effectively signaling that the Fed was prepared to begin cutting rates, and markets priced a September cut more heavily; stocks rallied on that dovish pivot (the Dow rose about 462 points, the S&P and Nasdaq gained roughly 1.1%–1.5% on the day), Treasury yields slid (the 10‑year moved down toward the high‑3% range and two‑year yields fell as well), and risk assets broadly received a lift even as incoming data showed inflation cooling (July CPI ~2.9% year‑over‑year) and the labor market softening (unemployment rose to about 4.3% in July), a mix that reinforced expectations the Fed would shift toward easing. (bloomberg.com)

On August 22, 2024 U.S. markets were cautiously lower as investors digested mixed macro signals and positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meetings: the S&P 500 slid about 0.9% (closing near 5,570.64) and the Nasdaq fell roughly 1.7% amid a rise in Treasury yields and thinner summer trading, after S&P Global’s flash August PMI showed U.S. manufacturing contracting (48.0) and the Fed’s minutes and large downward payroll revisions reinforced growing market expectations of a September rate cut; attention was also focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and on several geopolitical and supply‑chain stories — notably a Houthi attack that left the Greek‑flagged oil tanker Sounion ablaze in the Red Sea — that added to risk‑off positioning. (barchart.com)

On August 21, 2024 U.S. stocks pulled back modestly as a relief rally lost momentum: the Dow edged down to about 40,834.97, the S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.2% to about 5,597.12, and the Nasdaq fell about 0.3% to roughly 17,816.94, while the VIX ticked higher and trading volume was below recent averages; investors were parsing Federal Reserve minutes released that day which signaled that a majority of Fed officials saw a September rate cut as likely if incoming data behaved as expected, and traders entered the Jackson Hole week cautious ahead of Chair Powell’s high-profile remarks. (nasdaq.com)

On August 20, 2024 U.S. stocks were broadly higher, extending a multi‑day rally that followed early‑August selling: the S&P 500 rose about 1% to roughly 5,608, the Nasdaq advanced about 1.4% to roughly 17,877, and the Dow gained about 0.6% to roughly 40,897 as investors cheered cooling inflation signals and a rebound in risk appetite; markets were also pricing a strong probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2024, while traders kept an eye on Treasury yields and long‑bond moves. Political events (the Democratic National Convention) and fresh Middle East violence — including Israeli strikes in Lebanon — added episodic geopolitical risk that kept oil, defense and safe‑haven flows in focus even as the equity rally continued. (nasdaq.com)

On August 19, 2024 U.S. equity markets were generally firmer: the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow closed modestly higher after a week in which indexes had mounted a broad rebound as recession fears eased; the S&P finished the day up about 0.2% while the Nasdaq and Dow showed similar small gains, volatility (VIX) fell to the mid-teens and the 10‑year Treasury yield sat near roughly 3.9% as investors shifted toward rate‑cut expectations amid mixed economic data—consumer sentiment beat expectations while housing starts disappointed—and ahead of a busy political and central‑bank calendar (including the Democratic National Convention beginning that day and the upcoming Jackson Hole central‑bank symposium). (nasdaq.com)

On August 16, 2024 U.S. equity markets rallied and volatility eased: the Dow jumped roughly 1.4% to about 40,563, the S&P 500 rose into the mid-5,500s (about +1.6%) and the Nasdaq climbed roughly 2.3% (closing near 17,594), while the VIX fell into the mid-teens as investors parried earlier recession fears. The move followed a string of data released that week — notably a stronger-than-expected July retail‑sales print and a modest July CPI reading — plus falling initial jobless claims, which together boosted hopes for Fed rate cuts and pushed fed‑funds futures to price a high probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut in September; consumer sentiment also ticked up in preliminary August survey results, supporting a risk‑on tone. (nasdaq.com)

On August 15, 2024 the U.S. economy and markets showed a risk‑on tone as cooling inflation and surprisingly strong consumer spending altered Fed expectations: the July CPI (released Aug. 14) printed modest monthly gains and slowed the year‑over‑year pace to the high‑2% range, and the Commerce Department’s July retail‑sales report (released Aug. 15) surprised to the upside, together lifting stocks, nudging futures toward a likely September easing and producing intraday moves in Treasury yields and volatility indices; major indexes closed generally higher (the S&P extended a multi‑day winning streak, the Dow reclaimed the 40,000 area, the Nasdaq was little changed but recovered late) while the VIX fell and market pricing for a September rate cut rose as traders re‑weighted the probabilities. (nasdaq.com)

On August 14, 2024 the U.S. inflation picture softened as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July CPI rising 0.2% month‑over‑month and 2.9% year‑over‑year (the smallest 12‑month increase since March 2021); that print, coming after a tame PPI, reinforced market expectations that the Fed could begin cutting rates in September and helped equities close higher — the S&P 500 finished up roughly 0.38% at about 5,455.21, the Dow rose about 242 points to ~40,008.39 and the Nasdaq was essentially flat near 17,192 — while the 10‑year Treasury yield slipped modestly into the mid‑3.8% area as investors priced easier policy. (bls.gov)

On August 13, 2024 the U.S. market tone was cautiously positive: wholesale inflation (July PPI) came in softer than expected—up 0.1% month‑over‑month and 2.2% year‑over‑year—which deepened investor bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates in the coming months, sending Treasury yields lower and equities to near two‑week highs after a bout of early August volatility; major indices were mixed intraday (the S&P 500 was around 5,344.39, the Nasdaq around 16,780.61, and the Dow near 39,357) as the VIX and other anxiety measures fell from last week’s spikes and markets digested the data and company news. (marketscreener.com)

On August 12, 2024 U.S. markets were mixed and still digesting a volatile first week of August, with choppy trading and somewhat lower-than-average volumes as investors parsed economic surveys and corporate earnings that week. (cnbc.com) An ISM/services print and other July activity data provided a bit of relief for risk assets, but uncertainty about upcoming inflation readings and the Federal Reserve’s slower-than-hoped path to rate cuts kept sentiment fragile—Fed communications in June had already signaled fewer cuts than markets expected. (spglobal.com) Large-cap technology names continued to exert outsized influence on the tape while risk-on flows were uneven, and select cyclical areas showed noticeable weakness on the day (airline stocks were cited as underperformers). (fxleaders.com)

On August 9, 2024 U.S. markets staged a rebound after a volatile week, with major indexes finishing higher — the Nasdaq Composite jumped roughly 2.9% and the Dow rose about 1.8% — as investors reacted to an unexpectedly low weekly initial jobless claims print (233,000) that eased near-term recession fears, strong corporate headlines such as Eli Lilly’s better‑than‑expected second‑quarter results and raised guidance, and growing market bets that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates in the coming months; those factors pushed Treasury yields lower, supported risk assets into the close, but left overall volatility elevated after sharp selloffs earlier in the week. (nasdaq.com)

On August 8, 2024 U.S. financial markets staged a sharp rebound from earlier in the week, with the S&P 500 rising about 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping roughly 683 points and the Nasdaq rallying near 2.9%, after weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 233,000 and eased recession fears that had followed a weak July payrolls report showing only about 114,000 jobs added and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Treasury yields rose (the 10-year moved back toward the ~4% area) and the dollar strengthened, while volatility earlier in the week had been amplified by a yen-driven carry-trade unwind; investors reacted strongly to fresh labor and earnings data, producing a large one-day swing but leaving markets closely keyed to incoming economic releases and corporate reports. (cnbc.com)

On August 7, 2024 U.S. equity markets were choppy and finished the day broadly weaker as investors digested fresh signals of fragility: technology and small-cap names led declines, a poorly received 10‑year Treasury auction pushed yields up and rattled risk appetite, and markets remained sensitive to global central‑bank noise after Bank of Japan comments earlier in the session that briefly lifted sentiment; that combination, together with signs of cooling consumer credit and cautious corporate guidance, left trading volatile and markets more risk‑off ahead of further Fed commentary and economic releases. (kitco.com)

On August 6, 2024 U.S. markets regained some ground after a violent global sell-off: major indexes pared losses from the prior session with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising around 1% and the Dow up roughly 0.8% as investors bought into beaten-down names but remained cautious. The turmoil that sparked the rout combined an unexpectedly weak July jobs report (about 114,000 payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to the mid‑4% range) with an extraordinary plunge in Japan’s Nikkei — a roughly 12% one‑day drop tied to an abrupt unwind of yen-funded “carry trades” after a shift in Bank of Japan policy — and those forces together amplified recession worries, forced deleveraging and produced elevated volatility; by August 6 the market had stabilized somewhat but sentiment stayed fragile while traders watched Fed policy signals and potential follow‑through selling. (washingtonpost.com)

On August 5, 2024 U.S. markets were hit by a sharp, global risk-off episode that left major indexes down broadly (roughly mid-single-digit percentage moves in parts of the market over the prior sessions and about 2–3% on the day), with the Dow briefly moving more than 1,000 points lower intraday as investors fled to safe havens; the spike in volatility pushed the VIX to multi-year highs intraday and Treasury yields plunged as markets re-priced a higher probability of Fed rate cuts amid growing recession worries. The selloff was amplified by an unprecedented rout in Japan (the Nikkei plunged more than 12%), an unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, and signs of a cooling U.S. economy coming into the week — notably weak ISM manufacturing readings for July — plus a disappointing July jobs report that showed payroll gains well below expectations, all of which combined to sap risk appetite and trigger cross-asset volatility. (cnbc.com)

On August 2, 2024 the U.S. economic picture showed clear signs of cooling: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls rose by only 114,000 in July while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, and investors interpreted the accumulating weak data (including a soft ISM manufacturing reading) as a signal the economy was slowing. Markets reacted sharply that day with the S&P 500 falling roughly 1.8% (to about 5,346.56) and the Nasdaq sliding about 2.3–2.4% (putting it into correction territory), Treasury yields dropped (the 10‑year moved toward the ~3.8% area) as money flowed into bonds, and volatility spiked with the VIX climbing into the low‑to‑mid‑20s intraday; the market rout was amplified by disappointing corporate news—most notably a deep selloff in Intel after a major restructuring and dividend suspension and a string of underwhelming tech earnings—that intensified risk‑off positioning. (bls.gov)

As of August 1, 2024, the U.S. economy exhibited steady growth, with real GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, driven by robust consumer spending and increased exports. The labor market remained resilient, adding 114,000 jobs in July, though this was below expectations, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%. Inflation showed signs of moderation, with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in July, aligning with the Federal Reserve’s target range. Financial markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.94% in July, bringing its year-to-date return to 15.78%.